March 11, 2026
3 Winners of the Iran War
Dear Subscriber,
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| By Sean Brodrick |
American consumers are furious about soaring oil, gasoline and natural gas prices.
I don’t blame them.
They were promised lower energy prices and no new wars.
And now, we’re on day 12 of armed conflict with a country that’s blocked a major export corridor for oil and gas in response.
But looking at the big picture, the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is a boon for leading U.S. industries and companies.
Today, I’ll tell you about three industries that win bigger the longer the war drags on.
First of all, this isn’t your father’s oil crisis.
American crude imports from the Persian Gulf have dropped from 25% in 2014 to just 8.6% in 2025.
That’s a shift driven by record domestic production and deeper energy ties with Canada.
In fact, the U.S. is one of the top three global exporters of crude oil.
What’s more, we are the biggest exporter in the world of liquified natural gas (LNG).
So why are our prices going higher at all?
Because oil and nat gas are “fungible.”
In other words, when customers lose access to one global source, they can buy it from another.
When oil and nat gas shipments are cut off, customers get into bidding wars.
That can send prices sky-high around the world.
Let’s look at natural gas in particular.
U.S. gas remains far cheaper than in import-reliant markets like Europe and Asia.
We benefit from domestic shale production, while others face LNG premiums and geopolitical risks.
- Europe has seen its nat gas prices rise by 35% or more.
- Important Asian markets have seen nat gas prices soar as much as 50%!
Our price rise is not nearly as high for oil, and especially for natural gas.
Here’s a chart comparing U.S. and European natural gas futures through Monday …
One reason is that — since Europe’s own North Sea oil and gas fields are declining — the EU imports nearly all its fossil fuels.
This exposes it to global market volatility and geopolitics.
That said, the Middle East only supplies about 5% of Europe’s nat gas.
But that Middle East supply is now up against the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that runs right by the Iranian coast.
Exports from Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and yes, Iran, go through the Strait.
Asia receives much more LNG from the Middle East. So, buyers there are outbidding the Europeans for cargoes.
Result: Europe’s Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark has surged dramatically.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Henry Hub natural gas price has risen only a little.
Everything’s relative, sure.
But if you think your heating bills are too high, be thankful you’re not in Europe.
They measure nat gas energy in millions of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
The U.S. Henry Hub price for natural gas is typically $2-$3/MMBtu. Meanwhile, the European Dutch TTF benchmark has recently traded at $15-$20/MMBtu!
That’s a 7x jump!
The price surge/Hormuz blockage also means that — with shipments from the Middle East cut off for now — the U.S. share of the global LNG market will climb, and at higher prices.
In December — the latest EIA data available — U.S. liquefied natural gas exports soared to 569.3 billion cubic feet. That’s up 39% from the same month a year earlier.
So, U.S. natural gas exporters are one industry that will rack up bigger gains the longer this conflict drags on.
Another is U.S. chemical manufacturers.
Natural gas is a major input in the production of many chemicals.
Soaring prices in Europe and Asia mean U.S. manufacturers can underprice their global competition.
Finally, U.S. fertilizer manufacturers are my third winner.
That’s because U.S. fertilizer manufacturers use cheap pipeline natural gas (methane) as a feedstock to combine with nitrogen to make ammonia, which then is turned into expensive fertilizer.
So, cheap American nat gas gives U.S. fertilizer makers a huge cost advantage.
There aren’t any good ETFs to track fertilizer makers or chemical manufacturers.
You’ll have to track individual stocks there, like the one I just recommended to my Resource Trader subscribers on Monday.
But there is an ETF, just launched in October, to track the U.S. natural gas industry.
I’m talking about the Global X U.S. Natural Gas ETF (LNGX).
It tracks the entire domestic natural gas and natural gas liquids value chain.
LNGX lets you hold a basket of 34 stocks for an expense ratio of just 0.45%.
You can see that LNGX is taking off, heading higher even as the major indices slump.
LNGX should stay strong for a while — to the end of the war and potentially beyond — as U.S. nat gas manufacturers underprice global competitors.
There will be ups and downs. Pullbacks can be bought. And in this chaotic market, good luck to us all.
All the best,
Sean Brodrick
P.S. My colleague, Chris Graebe, just introduced a company at the forefront of a $60 billion-per-year opportunity.
The best part? It’s still privately owned. And Chris has a way for you to get your own shares of it BEFORE it IPOs.
Here are the details.
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