| TQ Evening Briefing | Today the market stopped cheering the ruling and started pricing the replacement, plus a refund fight that just turned political. | | | | | | Relief Faded. The Bill Arrived. | Friday felt like a release. Today felt like recalculation. | The S&P didn't collapse, but it couldn't hold early strength. The issue wasn't growth data. It wasn't earnings. It was mechanics. | The Court removed the broad IEEPA authority. The White House replaced it with Section 122 — capped at 15%, capped at 150 days. That sounds temporary. For CFOs guiding next quarter, it's another variable. | That's why equities drifted lower instead of building on Friday's rally. | At the same time: | Oil held firm into Thursday's Iran talks. Software stayed under pressure. Treasuries caught a bid. Mortgage rates slipped below 6%.
| Lower yields didn't lift risk. That's important. When bonds rally and equities don't, the bid is defensive. | This wasn't a growth panic. It was a planning problem. | Execution Bias | Washington is trading like an earnings variable now. | If yields keep easing while equities stay heavy, favor rate-sensitive defensives and strong balance sheets over cyclicals. |
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| | | | | WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED MARKETS |
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| | | Tariffs Were Rewritten, Not Removed | Friday's rally was emotional. Monday was operational. | Section 122 reauthorizes tariffs for 150 days. That sets a countdown clock. Importers now face a planning cliff. | Price now, hedge now, or delay and absorb volatility. | At the same time, Section 301 is being signaled as the next step. That reintroduces sector targeting risk. Companies don't know if they'll be in the next list. | Then there's the refund fight. | Democrats want IEEPA collections refunded quickly. The White House is pushing back. That moves the issue from courtrooms into Congress. | Here's how that flows into markets: | CFO guidance widens. Inventory decisions get pulled forward. Margin assumptions get padded. Capex decisions get delayed. Earnings visibility shrinks.
| The market doesn't hate tariffs as much as it hates shifting rulebooks. | Investor Signal | The market is pricing uncertainty as a cost. If Section 122 faces an injunction, volatility resets again. | Watch industrials and China-exposed ETFs for the first clean tells. |
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| | | | | | Celebration Turned Into Hedging | Friday's breadth looked like relief. Today's flow looked like restraint. | Defensives outperformed cyclicals. That wasn't dramatic. It was steady. Staples and utilities found buyers. Industrials faded. Software sold again. | The bond market told the clearest story. Yields drifted lower. That wasn't optimism about growth. It was risk trimming. | Meanwhile, AI-linked names stayed fragile. | Cybersecurity extended weakness after fresh disruption headlines. | The selling wasn't about revenue misses. It was about narrative risk. Anything that monetizes labor inside software is being questioned. | Oil held up better than equities. That tells you geopolitical premium hasn't left the system. | Breadth narrowed again. Fewer names carried the index. When leadership thins, index stability hides stock-level stress. | There was also a geographic undercurrent. | Flows continue to tilt toward Europe and Japan. That isn't a dramatic rotation yet. But marginal capital is no longer defaulting into U.S. mega-cap automatically. | That matters. | When capital has alternatives, valuation discipline returns. | Execution Bias | If yields fall and equities can't rally, that favors quality and cash flow. | If software keeps selling while semis hold, the AI unwind stays selective. | Position sizing matters more when leadership narrows. |
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| | | | Three Active Policy Pressures | First, tariffs. | Section 122 is active. Section 301 is being telegraphed. Tomorrow's State of the Union becomes a pricing event. If tariffs are framed as a sustained campaign, exporters reprice fast. | Second, Iran. | Talks resume Thursday. The Pentagon has flagged the risks of a broader operation. Oil staying firm tells you markets are not assuming a clean diplomatic outcome. Energy isn't spiking, but it isn't softening either. | Third, institutional credibility. | The acting BLS commissioner publicly rejected speculation about falsified data. That statement alone tells you something: trust is now part of the macro tape. | When statistical credibility becomes a headline, risk premia widen. | None of these are flashing red today. But they stack. | | Put them together and you get tighter tolerance for surprises. | Trade Implication | If the State of the Union signals escalation, global cyclicals reprice first. | If Iran talks deteriorate, energy and defense move before indices do. | Watch credit spreads. They'll confirm whether policy risk is spreading. |
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| | | | | | Refund Timing Is the Real Variable | The refund debate isn't political theater. It's cash flow. | Estimates suggest between $130 billion and $170 billion in potential refunds tied to the struck-down IEEPA tariffs. That's not trivial. | The market cares about two variables: speed and funding. | If refunds move quickly, that's a one-time corporate cash injection. It could show up in margins or capex. | If refunds drag through litigation, they become noise. No earnings impact. | Then there's Treasury supply. Fast refunds widen deficits. That means more issuance. In a market already sensitive to duration, that matters. | So the question isn't "Will refunds happen?" | It's "When?" | If they land inside this earnings cycle, equities feel it. | If they land in court calendars, rates feel it. | Edge Setup | If refund timing becomes concrete and near-term, import-heavy retailers benefit. | If timing slips into prolonged litigation, duration becomes the pressure valve. |
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| | | | | | Friday's question was simple: did the Supreme Court change the tariff game? | Today's answer was clearer. It changed the authority. It didn't change the direction. | The broadest tool is gone. A narrower one replaced it. Another one is being prepared. | At the same time, oil isn't soft, software isn't stable, and bonds are quietly bid. | Now the tape heads into two catalysts that can override everything: tomorrow night's address and Wednesday's Nvidia print. | If Nvidia validates demand, the market can ignore Washington briefly. | If it doesn't, policy risk moves to the front of the screen. | The ruling is old news. The replacement is the trade. | This is no longer about tariffs in theory. It is about guidance, inventory, and capital allocation under a shifting rulebook. | Stay nimble. |
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