Dear Reader,
Good morning.
This is Dylan Jovine with Behind the Markets.
Happy Wednesday.
Today is Wednesday, February 25th.
We're almost to March.
And today I want to talk about the real selloff we saw on Monday — because while tariffs played a role, there's a second force emerging that I believe is far more important.
As we discussed yesterday, the issue isn't the tariffs themselves. It's the uncertainty around them.
Businesses can adapt to almost any environment — higher taxes, lower taxes, tariffs, no tariffs. But what they cannot adapt to is instability.
If you're Ford or General Motors and you're deciding where to build your next factory, you need to know the rules. Do you build in Mexico? Canada? The United States? What will the tariff structure look like six months from now? A year from now?
When those answers aren't clear, businesses wait.
They delay investment.
And that alone is enough to slow economic momentum.
But there's another reason markets sold off — one that hasn't received nearly as much attention.
And it has to do with artificial intelligence.
I came across a fascinating piece of research from Citrini Research titled The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.
It asks a provocative question:
What if AI is so bullish for productivity… that it becomes bearish for the broader economy?
That may sound counterintuitive, but let me explain.
At Behind the Markets, we've already begun integrating AI deeply into our own operations.
For example, we produce a significant amount of video content. Historically, that required outside vendors charging us $8,000 to $10,000 per month.
Today, AI can do much of that work for a few hundred dollars.
The same is true for data analytics, research gathering, and operational workflows. Tasks that once required expensive software subscriptions or outside services can now be handled directly through AI platforms.
We're even building internal AI agents that pull raw data directly from SEC filings — eliminating the need for traditional data intermediaries altogether.
The result is simple.
Everything becomes faster.
Everything becomes cheaper.
Everything becomes more efficient.
And while that's incredibly bullish for companies adopting AI, it raises some very serious questions:
What happens to the companies being replaced?
What happens to the software vendors?
What happens to the data providers?
What happens to the firms whose business models depend on selling services that AI can now replicate instantly?
This is why we've been focusing so heavily on what I call the "second wave" of AI.
Not the companies being disrupted — but the ones quietly positioning themselves at the center of this shift.
Because when a transformation like this happens, the biggest fortunes certainly aren't made by the businesses being replaced… but by the ones enabling the new infrastructure.
I recently shared one of these under-the-radar companies with a small group of subscribers — a company I believe is set to benefit greatly as AI reshapes the global economy.
You can get all the details here.
We're already seeing the answer in market action.
Companies like S&P Global, FactSet, and Morningstar have come under pressure.
Technology and enterprise software firms like IBM, Datadog, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler have also experienced significant volatility.
Because investors are beginning to understand that AI isn't just creating new winners.
It's displacing existing incumbents.
Citrini's thought experiment takes this one step further.
It imagines a future where AI delivers extraordinary productivity gains — but concentrates economic power into a small number of dominant players.
In this scenario, unemployment rises. Markets struggle. Wealth becomes more concentrated.
Not because AI failed.
But because it succeeded.
For the first time in human history, intelligence becomes available on demand.
And when intelligence becomes abundant, its economic value changes dramatically.
This is not a distant possibility.
We are already seeing early signs of it today.
From my perspective, AI in late 2025 and early 2026 is fundamentally different from what existed even two years ago.
The capabilities have improved dramatically.
The cost has collapsed.
And the pace of adoption is accelerating across every industry.
For business owners, this represents an extraordinary opportunity.
If you are not actively integrating AI into your operations — if you are not using it to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase productivity — you are placing yourself at a competitive disadvantage.
But at the macro level, this transition will not be smooth.
Disruption on this scale always creates instability.
It creates winners.
And it creates losers.
And when disruption affects millions of white-collar jobs — across finance, software, consulting, and other knowledge industries — the economic and political consequences can be significant.
This is why I believe we are entering a period of meaningful structural change.
Not just in markets.
But in the economy itself.
Anyway, that's what's on my mind today.
Have a wonderful day.
I'll see you tomorrow.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar