We're heading into the bell with a head full of steam...
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Click here to adjust your playbook | | | Good morning, | The S&P 500 is a whisker from all-time highs. Gold is holding above $5,000. | And the most important data week of the quarter kicks off in minutes. | But here's what nobody's talking about… | The signals underneath are flashing warnings that contradict the headlines. | And that's exactly the kind of setup where fortunes get made… or lost. | Join us on Market Masters at TheoTrade at 8:45 AM. | Here's why today matters more than most: | The data gauntlet starts NOW. | Retail sales hit at 10 AM. NFP drops on Wednesday. CPI lands Friday. | The S&P just ripped 2.5% in two sessions and is pressing against record highs… but whether this is a breakout or a trap depends entirely on what the next three days of data reveal. | Money markets are pricing two rate cuts for 2026. Nearly 80% of earnings are beating expectations. So the setup looks clean until you dig into the MOMO signals. | The S&P and Russell are showing DIVERGENCE. | Big money is buying while breadth deteriorates. That's not a green light. | That's a yellow light flashing red. We'll show you exactly how to read it. | China just fired a shot across the bow. | Beijing told its banks to limit their holdings of US Treasuries. The yuan surged to its strongest level since May 2023. This isn't posturing — it's capital repatriation in real time, accelerating a structural shift away from the dollar that directly impacts your rate exposure, currency risk, and portfolio positioning. A Trump-Xi summit is reportedly set for April. We'll break down what this means before the market prices it in. | Gold above $5,000 isn't just a number — it's a verdict. | When gold holds a level like this after a sharp recovery, it's telling you something about how the biggest players in the world view risk right now. The PBOC has been buying for 15 straight months. The Bank of China is hiking margin requirements on gold contracts starting tomorrow. That's not bearish… That's a market so hot the regulators are trying to cool it down. | We'll tell you what it means for your positioning. | Trump is going after Powell… and this time it's personal. | He called the Fed chair "incompetent" and possibly "corrupt," and he's openly pushing for Warsh to take over in May. | Meanwhile, Fed voter Miran says rates should be "much lower." | Trump says 15% GDP growth is possible. Whether you think that's visionary or delusional, the policy uncertainty it creates is tradeable… and we'll show you how. | Earnings are moving names TODAY. | Spotify crushed it… record user signups, stock up 5%+. | BP suspended buybacks to shore up the balance sheet, down 5%. | And the calendar today is stacked: KO, GILD, HOOD, DDOG, Ford, AIG, Duke Energy. TSMC just posted its fastest sales growth in months on sustained AI demand, right as UBS downgraded US IT to Neutral. | There are setups here. We'll find them. | This is one of those weeks where the market decides its next direction. | The headlines say rally. The internals say be careful. | The data will settle the argument… and it starts today. | Don't watch from the sidelines. Get in the room with us. | See you in there, | Garrett Baldwin |
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