Hey there, friend!
Wall Street is serving up another helping of optimism this Friday, even as the government shutdown threatens to take key economic data off the menu. While Washington remains gridlocked and the September jobs report sits in the freezer, investors are still pulling up to the table with futures pointing toward fresh record highs. But with the shutdown potentially dragging into next week and critical data going dark, how long can this feast last? Let's dig into today's market spread! Plus, try your luck and win a $50 Amazon Gift Card! 🎁
- Dan
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- Israeli military stops nearly all boats in aid flotilla, sparking global protests
- UK set to name new Archbishop, with women on contender lists in historic first
- Germany investigates after drone sightings shut Munich airport overnight
- Syria to establish first post-Assad parliament amid political inclusivity concerns
- Five police officers injured in clashes at Gaza protest in Geneva
- Russia targets Ukraine's energy infrastructure in overnight air attack
- French PM puts onus on lawmakers to strike budget deal
- Dutch Supreme Court orders government to review Israel's weapons export policy
- Czechs vote as frontrunner Babis promises lavish spending, less Ukraine support
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Stock of Interest This Week Recap |
Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: CALM) Cal-Maine delivered record Q1 sales of $922.6M (+17% Y/Y) and EPS of $4.12 (+35%), though both missed estimates, sending shares down 9%. Specialty eggs rose 10% and prepared foods jumped 840% on the Echo Lake Foods deal. Strong cash flow (+137% Y/Y) and a debt-free balance sheet support growth and M&A, while bird flu risks remain. Management sees robust growth ahead with its strong balance sheet and diversified portfolio. (Price at call: $98.43, Current price: $93, Analyst expectation: $103) |
Stock of Interest Yesterday |
Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) Mineralys Therapeutics (MLYS) is advancing lorundrostat in resistant hypertension, with Phase 3 wins and an FDA pre-NDA meeting set for Q4 2025. Phase 2 data in CKD showed strong efficacy, while OSA trial results are due in Q1 2026. Backed by $325M cash through 2027, MLYS has multiple catalysts, though risks include FDA approval and rival competition from Idorsia's Tryvio. (Price at call: $39.81, Current price: $40.99, Analyst expectation: $42) |
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Current price: $38.90 | Analyst expectation: $40.00 | Dividend yield: 5.3% This Canadian oil sands giant offers 25 consecutive years of dividend growth at 21% CAGR, 5.3% yield, plus buybacks pushing total shareholder yield near 9%. Controls 33 years of proven reserves with industry-leading operating costs of C$26.53/barrel. Following accretive acquisitions, CNQ targets C$2B debt reduction this year, boosting returns from 60% of free cash flow to 75% tier. (Current price: $31.50, Analyst expectation long term: $35) |
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Shutdown Resilience Strategy: Wall Street is hitting records despite dysfunction, but Polymarket shows a 46% chance shutdown lasts beyond Oct 15. Deutsche Bank warns "larger economic impact" possible. Recipe: Position defensively with utilities and staples if crossing the two-week mark; quick resolution could spark a relief rally in government contractors. Data Blackout Navigation: September payrolls postponed indefinitely – critical Fed gauge now dark. PMI and ISM data are pale substitutes. Recipe: Volatility could spike when the data is finally released. Consider adding option hedges, as a delayed data dump could trigger outsized moves. AI Infrastructure Gold Rush: Google investing $4B in Arkansas data center, Hitachi partnering with OpenAI, Microsoft-Nebius deploying 100,000+ Nvidia GPUs. Recipe: Look beyond chip makers to utilities providing power, cooling equipment suppliers, and data center REITs. Capital expenditure cycle in early innings. Geopolitical Chip Constraints: Applied Materials warns of $600M fiscal 2026 revenue loss from China restrictions, and Nvidia's UAE deal has been stalled for five months. Recipe: Favor semiconductor companies with diversified geographic exposure. China-dependent firms face structural headwinds as restrictions tighten. Housing Market Friction Points: Shutdown stalling rural USDA loans, freezing FEMA flood insurance, and slowing mortgage approvals. Recipe: Creates a contrarian opportunity. When resolved, plus eventual Fed cuts, pent-up demand could unleash activity in homebuilders and mortgage servicers. |
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USD Economic Events - Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (Prev: 0.3%)
- Non-Farm Employment Change: 52K (Prev: 22K)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (Prev: 4.3%)
- FOMC Member Miran Speaks
- Final Services PMI: 53.9 (Prev: 53.9)
- ISM Services PMI: 51.8 (Prev: 52.0)
- FOMC Member Logan Speaks
- FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
- FOMC Member Miran Speaks
Upcoming Earnings Feast No major earnings reports are scheduled for release today. The earnings calendar takes a breather after a busy week. |
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Tesla Shareholder Group Calls on Investors to Reject Musk's $1T Pay Plan: Coalition led by SOC Investment Group urging a vote against Musk's compensation and re-election of three board directors. The letter states, "board's relentless pursuit of retaining its CEO seems to have harmed the company's reputation." Stock dropped 5.1% Thursday despite record Q3 deliveries. Nvidia's UAE Chip Deal Stalled Five Months, Frustrating Huang: Multibillion-dollar deal to supply advanced AI chips stuck per WSJ. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is conditioning approval on the UAE making substantial U.S. investments first. Sets a precedent for using chip access as leverage to extract foreign investment. Google to Invest $4B in Arkansas Data Center Powered by Entergy: Tech giant investing through 2027 for data center on 1,000+ acres in West Memphis. Google covers full energy costs, contributing $1.1B+ in net benefits while helping reduce electricity rates. Validates utilities with surplus power are prime AI buildout beneficiaries. Hitachi Partners with OpenAI Over Global Data Centers: Japanese giant formalized a partnership to build AI infrastructure globally. Hitachi supplies power, cooling, and distribution equipment, while OpenAI provides models for Hitachi's platform. Underscores AI infrastructure requires expertise in power systems and thermal management. Trump Eyes Firing Thousands of Federal Workers Over Shutdown: President weighing slashing "thousands" of jobs as White House ratchets up pressure on Democrats. Press Secretary says number "likely going to be in the thousands." Represents a dual strategy: extracting concessions while creating a pretext for workforce reductions. Shutdown Threatens Rural Loans and Flood Insurance: Stalled USDA rural loans and a freeze on FEMA flood insurance are disrupting the housing market. Rural programs suspended, affecting zero-down loans. NFIP cannot issue new policies, halting home sales in flood zones requiring insurance. Pfizer's Drug-Price Deal With Trump Followed Months of Deadlock: Trump's September 25 tariff announcement on drugs came after months of tense negotiations. Pfizer struck an agreement, though the details are murky. Creates new risk – drug pricing now includes presidential intervention through tariff threats via social media. |
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Tesla (TSLA ⬆️ 1.6% premarket): EV maker rebounds after Thursday's 5.1% drop despite delivering record Q3 numbers of 497,099 vehicles. NYC pension funds filed an SEC letter urging investors to reject Musk's $1T pay package, citing the board's focus on "pleasing Mr. Musk" over shareholder interests. Analyst bias: Watch shareholder vote dynamics – institutional pushback on compensation could override strong delivery numbers. Rivian Automotive (RIVN ⬆️ 0.4% premarket): Smaller EV rival attempting recovery after six consecutive down sessions, falling 7.4% Thursday. Q3 deliveries jumped 32% and beat estimates, but the company reduced full-year delivery guidance. Analyst bias: Six-day losing streak signals deep profitability concerns. Cash burn remains key worry until a clear path to positive margins emerges. Applied Materials (AMAT ⬇️ 3.8% premarket): Chip equipment maker gets hit by expanded U.S. export rules, cutting Q4 revenue by $110M and fiscal 2026 revenue by $600M. New BIS Affiliate Rules restrict product exports to China-based customers without licenses. Analyst bias: China-dependent semiconductor equipment makers face structural challenges as geopolitical tensions escalate. Boeing (BA ⬆️ 0.2% premarket): Aerospace giant edges higher despite Bloomberg report that 777X first commercial flight pushed to early 2027 instead of next year. The market is being treated as "expected news" rather than a fresh disappointment. Analyst bias: Multiple delays eroding credibility, but massive order backlog provides a floor. Fair Isaac (FICO ⬆️ 1.8% premarket): Credit scoring provider extends Thursday's remarkable 18% surge after unveiling new pricing models allowing direct access to FICO scores, bypassing traditional bureaus like Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian. Analyst bias: Power play reshaping credit reporting industry. FICO cutting out middlemen significantly expands the addressable market and pricing power. Coinbase Global (COIN ⬇️ 0.3% premarket) & Strategy/MicroStrategy (MSTR ⬇️ 0.4% premarket): Crypto ecosystem taking a breather after a strong run. Coinbase closed up 7.5% Thursday (its fifth straight gain) while Strategy gained 4.1% as Bitcoin approached $121,000. Analyst bias: Bitcoin's march toward $125,000 looks likely. Both offer leveraged crypto exposure, but remember, leverage works both ways. Occidental Petroleum (OXY ⬆️ 1.5% premarket): Oil producer bouncing after 7.3% Thursday plunge following $9.7B sale of petrochemical business to Berkshire Hathaway. The market is concerned about capital deployment plans. Analyst bias: Watch how management uses proceeds. Debt reduction and shareholder returns could flip sentiment; questionable acquisitions could extend the sell-off. Rumble (RUM ⬆️ 13% premarket): Video platform surging on Perplexity partnership integrating AI tools to boost discovery. Deal includes bundled subscription combining premium plans, with Perplexity's "Comet" promoted across the Rumble ecosystem. Analyst bias: Partnership addresses content discovery challenge, but Rumble remains speculative play in YouTube-dominated market. USA Rare Earth (USAR ⬆️ 7% premarket): Shares soaring after the CEO stated on CNBC company is in close communication with the Trump administration about building U.S. rare earth supply chains. Follows government investments in MP Materials and Lithium Americas. Analyst bias: Rare earths are a national security priority amid China tensions. Verify actual contracts, not just communication claims. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD ⬆️ 3.4%): Semiconductor leading chip sector higher on multi-year agreement with IBM and Zyphra for AMD Instinct MI300X GPUs. Intel is reportedly in early discussions to add AMD as a foundry customer. Analyst bias: AI infrastructure buildout accelerating. AMD is positioning itself as a credible Nvidia alternative with enterprise partnerships validating the MI300X platform. |
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ETF Gainers: Tradr 2X Long RGTI Daily ETF (⬆️ 39.06%): Quantum computing euphoria Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RGTI ETF (⬆️ 36.34%): Double down on quantum Tradr 2X Long ASTS Daily ETF (⬆️ 32.12%): Satellite communications soaring ProShares Ultra CRCL (⬆️ 31.86%): Clean energy speculation Leverage Shares 2X Long CRCL Daily ETF (⬆️ 31.81%): Green energy momentum
ETF Losers: T-REX 2X Inverse CRCL Daily Target ETF (⬇️ 32.10%): Clean energy bears crushed Defiance Daily Target 2X Short IONQ ETF (⬇️ 20.25%): Quantum shorts squeezed GraniteShares 2X Short COIN Daily ETF (⬇️ 14.94%): Crypto rally penalty GraniteShares 2X Long RIVN Daily ETF (⬇️ 14.82%): EV leveraged pain T-Rex 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (⬇️ 10.22%): Tesla volatility whiplash
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🥡 The Weekend Windfall: A legendary trader has revealed his "bizarre Friday routine" that he claims leads to large cash payouts by Monday. According to him, he places one simple trade just before the closing bell on Friday and, if all goes as planned, cashes out for weekend windfalls. Are you curious enough to watch and see if you can learn the secret to these significant Monday payouts?
🥡The AI Infrastructure Arms Race: The AI race has escalated into a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure war, with tech giants making massive investments to control the hardware that powers artificial intelligence. This shift from software to infrastructure is reshaping the industry and will determine who wins the future of AI. Will you be an investor in the code, or the companies that build the foundation? 🥡 Changes to High-Earner 401(k) Contributions: A new rule under the Secure 2.0 retirement law will change how "catch-up contributions" are taxed for high earners. Starting next year, individuals over 50 who made more than $145,000 in the prior year will no longer be able to make their catch-up contributions on a tax-deferred basis. How will this change affect your retirement savings strategy?
🥡Get Ready to Gaze: Two Meteor Showers Light Up the Sky: October is a treat for stargazers, with two major meteor showers, the Draconids and the Orionids, set to light up the night sky. The Draconids will peak on October 8th, while the brighter and faster Orionids will peak on October 21st. Are you ready to witness this month's stunning meteor showers? |
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For more information and to verify the accuracy of the claims made in this email, please consult the following reliable sources: - Israel stops 13 Gaza aid boats, organisers say, sparking international criticism — Reuters
- UK set to name new Archbishop, with women contender on lists for historic first — Reuters
- Drone sightings disrupt Munich airport, halt flights, impact thousands — Reuters
- Syria to establish first post-Assad parliament amid political inclusivity concerns — Reuters
- Five police officers injured in clashes at Gaza protest in Geneva — Reuters
- Russia attacks Ukraine's energy infrastructure overnight, energy ministry says — Reuters
- French PM rules out using special constitutional powers to pass budget — Reuters
- Dutch Supreme Court orders government to review Israel weapons export policy — Reuters
- Czechs vote; frontrunner Babis promises lavish spending, less Ukraine support — Reuters
- Tesla shareholder group challenges Elon Musk's pay plan — Seeking Alpha
- AMD leads semiconductor stocks higher as major AI investments continue to mount — Seeking Alpha
- Nvidia's stalled AI chip deal with UAE frustrates Huang — Seeking Alpha
- Google to invest in data center in Arkansas with Entergy — Seeking Alpha
- Japan's Hitachi joins hands with OpenAI over data centers — Seeking Alpha
- Biggest stock movers Friday: AMAT, RUM, and more — Seeking Alpha
- Stock index futures rise as markets continue to shrug off shutdown concerns — Seeking Alpha
- Trump eyes firing thousands of federal workers — Yahoo Finance
- Shutdown threatens to stall rural loans — Yahoo Finance
- Pfizer, Trump reach drug price deal — Yahoo Finance
- Stock futures rise as investors shrug off prolonged shutdown fears — Barron's
- ETF Movers: Market data and trends — Wall Street Journal
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