Now... let me ask you a question. Who predicted all of this? The answer, of course, is no one. Who predicted most of this? Again, no one. That made timing the market's plunge and recovery impossible. Yet Oxford Club Members had the chance to make a boatload of money over this period. How? By knowing that the worst tariffs were unlikely to last. As I wrote to our Chairman's Circle Members on April 7, as the market was melting down... "I'm fully on board with [Trump's] plans to extend the 2017 tax cuts, deregulate the economy, boost our energy independence, and cut waste, fraud, and abuse from our bloated government bureaucracy. But his tariffs are an unforced error... There is a strong probability that these tariffs will be delayed, reduced, repealed, or negotiated away. No one can predict how this will play out. Because it all depends on the whims of one man. But I believe that reason will prevail - and the tariffs will ultimately go away. It may take days. It may take weeks. But tariffs are a terrible idea when they are permanent. So, I'm betting they won't be. If Trump calls taking the tariffs down a win and claims that was his plan all along, I'm fine with that. It will also make the recent market dive - in hindsight - look like an overreaction. That's why I'm inclined to use this dramatic sell-off as a buying opportunity." Trump views the stock market as a barometer of his success as president. (And you should never underestimate a man who can turn a mug shot into a campaign poster.) Knowing this, Oxford Club Members had the chance to use the multi-week meltdown to buy over a dozen beaten-up stocks. Today they are much higher. In fact, one of them is up over 100% in less than two months. Following "Liberation Day," equity investors everywhere got whipsawed. The worst sold in a panic as stocks collapsed. Average investors sat on their hands and did nothing. (Or made the mistake of waiting for stocks to get even cheaper before committing any fresh money to the market.) But smart, opportunistic investors took our advice and bought great companies while they were inexpensive. Now we are reaping the rewards. Bear in mind, we are not market timers. We had no idea what Trump would do next. We had no idea how quickly the market would recover. However, we invest according to time-tested principles. History shows that the smartest thing to do in a market meltdown is to buy quality assets while they are inexpensive. Yes, you can always wait for stocks to go even lower. But that's market timing, and it doesn't work. Bottom line? When assets are cheap, don't get caught stealing in slow motion. Good investing, Alex P.S. I'm revealing how members of Congress positioned themselves ahead of some of these big announcements here. |
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