Jumat, 30 Mei 2025

The "Chocolate-Covered Hand Grenades" Market Warning

Don Kaufman here.

Okay, Let's Get Right Into It...

Has one single deal been reached regarding any other sovereignty? Has one deal actually been reached on the front of tariffs?

Think about that for a moment.

Because while everyone's focused on where the market's trading right now, I'm worried about what the market's trading on. And people, it's not pretty.

We just saw the PCE data - the Fed's inflationary indicator of choice - drop to its lowest level in four years. The marketplace completely overlooked it. Didn't trade anything off of it. Nothing.

But a post from the administration about China? Instant sellside activity.

Here's what's really happening in this market that nobody's talking about:

• The shocking truth about why $2,000 contracts barely moved the S&Ps on crucial Fed data (when similar prints moved us 100+ points just months ago)

• Why Don spotted "three separate instances" of identical tight-range trading that reveal the market's dangerous new reality

• How the administration's morning "warning shot" signals what's coming next week... and why Don's nervous about holding anything long into the weekend

• The specific bond market behavior that's about to create problems again (and why rates are headed back up)

• Why next week's $104 expected move pricing is setting up traders for disaster after this week's actual $126+ movement

Look, we're literally at the exact same levels we were three weeks ago. Massively unchanged with a side order of tweet. That's why I say the merrygo-round of risk continues.

And unfortunately, I think we might actually have some negative implications right in front of us.

The question is: do you see an easy path forward with China? I surely don't.

GET MY COMPLETE MARKET BREAKDOWN AND TRADE STRATEGY

This is not an easy marketplace to navigate. We've got to get through some chaos before we do.

To your success,

Don Kaufman