| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Thursday April 10, 2025 | Swan Dive — April 10, 2025 The End of Cheap From the desk of Addison Wiggin
When we first forecast "The End of Cheap " in 2022, our primary concern wasn't U.S. inflation — though that was certainly on the horizon — but rather the brewing financial storm in China. China makes the cheap stuff we buy at Walmart, Costco and Dollar General.
At the time, people had had enough of China.
Bands of social media influencers were sleuthing out details on the escape of the Covid virus from that lab in Wuhan. But mostly, people were too tired of isolating in their own homes to worry about an economic meltdown halfway around the world in the Middle Kingdom. Or how China’s shutdown led to a collapse in global supply chains.
Here’s the rub: China has been the world's discount manufacturer, supplying affordable goods that have filled American homes. This foundation has enabled China's ascent to the world's second-largest economy.
Yet, despite the People's Party's best intentions, China, too, must observe the laws of economics. Their monetary mandarins have been unable to spur domestic demand to fight off an internal financial crisis. 🇨🇳 🩹China's Desperate Stimulus Yesterday, Beijing unveiled a fresh round of stimulus aimed at combating domestic consumer deflation, a spiraling real estate crisis, and the gut punch delivered by U.S. tariffs now soaring to 125% on Chinese goods. The People's Bank of China is slashing rates and injecting liquidity, hoping to prop up a faltering economy.
The real estate sector, once a pillar of strength, is now a quagmire of debt and unfinished projects. Consumer confidence is in the basement, and deflationary pressures suggest Chinese households are clutching their wallets tighter than ever.
This stimulus might offer a temporary sugar rush, but the underlying maladies remain unaddressed. U.S. tariffs only aggravate the issue. 📉 💣Return of the Bond Vigilantes The bond market has been sending distress signals reminiscent of a canary in a coal mine. Following the administration's tariff announcements, investors have been offloading U.S. Treasurys at an alarming rate, leading to a surge in yields. The 30-year Treasury yield spiked above 5%, levels unseen since 2023. The 10-year, which dropped under 4% Monday morning, was up to nearly 4.6% on Wednesday – a phenomenal swing in rates for a Treasury bond.
This sell-off indicates waning confidence in the U.S. government's fiscal path, exacerbated by fears of escalating trade wars and their inflationary consequences. 🇺🇸 🎯Trump's Tariff Tactics: A High-Stakes Gamble In a maneuver the mainstream press and their constituent economic pundits called erratic, President Trump, alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, ratcheted up tariffs on all Chinese goods to a staggering 125%.
They simultaneously, hit the pause button on reciprocal tariffs for over 75 nations that chose not to retaliate, granting a 90-day reprieve. Supporters pointed to Trump’s genius and urged everyone to reread “Art of the Deal” for the 736th time.
The markets responded with the grace of a bull in a china shop.
Wall Street executives just secretly met in Las Vegas luxury suites—eerily similar to gatherings before the 2008 crash. But this time, a $36 trillion financial bombshell threatens everything. There’s no doubt they're quietly positioning themselves. You won't hear warnings on CNBC.
"The Armageddon Man" Addison Wiggin—whose team has predicted every major economic crisis of our era—has uncovered what's coming next.
Watch his controversial video now, send it to everyone you know, and protect your wealth before it's too late.
History is repeating. Will you be prepared?
💹 📈Market Mayhem: A Historic Rebound Formerly depressed yet overcaffeinated, Wall Street traders came to life in seconds, sparking a historic surge across major U.S. stock indices.  The Dow soared by 2,962 points, up 7.9%, the smallest gain of the three major indices. For their part, the S&P 500 jumped 9.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite skyrocketed 12.2%, ending the day at 17,124.97.
The rally reversed a steep 12% decline over the prior four days, reflecting renewed investor optimism amid easing trade tensions. 💰 🪙Gold and Bitcoin: Rallying from Recent Lows Traditional “safe-haven” assets also experienced significant rebounds. Gold futures rose nearly two percent, closing at $3,140. Similarly, bitcoin surged by 8%, closing above $82,ooo again. 🤑 💸Billionaires' Bonanza: A Political Powder Keg During the "all-asset rally," the world’s wealthiest added $304 billion to their combined net worth Wednesday — the largest one-day gain in the history of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.  This chart will undoubtedly animate Bernie and AOC’s national Fight Oligarchy tour. You have to hand it to them, though. During market chaos, the rich tend to get richer. They don’t panic sell, and they find bargains to buy. iPhones: The New Black-Market Gold? Here's a curious thought: if U.S.-China trade relations deteriorate further, iPhones could become valuable black-market assets. Nearly all iPhones are assembled in China. A trade halt means no new iPhones in the U.S. for months. Smartphones are essential.
If supply dries up, prices could skyrocket. Easy to store and resell, iPhones could become a form of "crisis currency." Apple users are notoriously loyal. The inconvenience of switching could drive demand — and prices — even higher. So, should you buy an extra iPhone?
If you anticipate a hard decoupling between the U.S. and China, securing an additional device might not be the worst hedge.
Our suggestion? Buy it at Costco, to take advantage of their 90-day return policy on electronics. That’ll get you through the current tariff pause.
More soon,
Addison P.S. Full-fledged fraternity members: Don’t forget to join us for Grey Swan Live! today at 11 AM EST. We'll dissect these developments and review our model portfolio — 15 of 20 holdings remain robust, including all five of our aggressive plays, which are up a combined 100% this year.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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