Crypto, Housing, Robots, AI By Michael Salvatore, Editor, TradeSmith Daily In This Digest: - The biggest drag on the crypto market is not what you expect…
- Where Andy and Landon Swan see the best housing opportunity…
- Consumer and industrial robotics are the next big thing…
- How TradeSmith is applying AI to make you a better trader…
These markets never close… It’s Good Friday, and U.S. markets are closed, as are our offices. But don’t worry. TradeSmith hardly ever takes a true day off. Especially when there’s still plenty to talk about. Today, we’re going to look at two markets that never close – one very old school and one very new… housing and crypto. I’m seeing a lot of interesting stuff happen in the crypto space. Andy and Landon Swan are seeing just as much interesting stuff in housing. But we aren’t stopping there. There are two big tech themes emerging in markets right now – themes that are inextricably linked, both with the potential to really make the future look, well, futuristic. Today’s Digest is bursting at the seams with cool stuff, so let’s not waste any more time… | Recommended Link | | | | China’s retaliatory tariffs are just one part of a master plan to dethrone the U.S. Make no mistake: China is determined, and they will do everything they can to win. There’s even evidence that they’ve been stealing our technology to do it. Fortunately, we have our own ace up our sleeve… a “secret weapon” developed right here on American soil. Here’s why this could put America on top for years to come. |  | | Crypto is in a really, really weird spot… Not because it’s down from the post-election highs. Anyone that’s ever bought crypto is quite used to its ups and downs. It’s because what was once seen as Bitcoin’s (BTC) biggest competition is now arguably one of the weakest stories in crypto. Those who follow this space already know what I’m talking about. It’s Ethereum and its native token Ether (ETH). ETH has been devastated so far this year, with the price down more than 60% from the December highs. To put this into context: That drop represents a $286 billion capital loss, equivalent to the market cap of Bank of America (BAC), Novo Nordisk (NVO), or Alibaba (BABA), as of this writing. It’s a tremendous loss for an asset that relatively few investors are even familiar with. And what’s even more bizarre about ETH’s descent is that the rest of the crypto market is holding up better. Let me show you what I mean and why this matters. Take a look at the ETH/BTC chart, which plots the performance of Ether against Bitcoin: 
Source: TradingView As you can see, that performance is at a five-year low… despite the price of ETH itself gaining more than 8X during that time. There’s no denying the downtrend against Bitcoin is steep. And it suggests little patience for the more complicated and unserious areas of the crypto market, which Ethereum is the inarguable source of as the world’s largest open-source blockchain. But what really stood out to me is ETH’s relationship to the rest of the crypto market that spawned from it. The measure of the entire crypto market cap without ETH and BTC (TOTAL3, blue line) is in a healthier state than it is simply without BTC (TOTAL2, red line): 
Source: TradingView TOTAL3’s decline is less steep than TOTAL2. Even though the market is obviously smaller without ETH, the drop isn’t nearly as dire. As I write this, TOTAL3 is down 32% and testing the early 2024 and late 2022 highs… while TOTAL2 is down 41% and testing the 2022 bear market lows. In fact, ETH’s performance against TOTAL3 is at an all-time low: 
Source: TradingView The point is, ETH is a heavy weight hanging around the neck of the entire crypto market. But is the selling overdone? I might argue all this weakness could be a buy signal in disguise… 
Source: TradingView Short-term, I don’t think you want to be an ETH seller here, especially with prices so beaten down. On the daily chart, the price is flattening out while the RSI sprang back up from deeply oversold (it fell under 20). That’s a positive divergence that can act as a buy signal. And long-term… well, it doesn’t make too much sense to be a seller, either. Decline aside, there’s still a compelling case for ETH being the number-two crypto by market cap: - It supports a vast and growing ecosystem of decentralized applications.
- The amount of staked ETH, which helps validate transactions, has been steadily climbing for the last four years.
- Stablecoins – many of which are hosted on the Ethereum network – are still trending higher in market cap, around $233 billion.
- Major institutions like BlackRock (BLK) and Deutsche Bank (DB) are involved in the space, launching tokenized funds and efficiency solutions.
At a multi-hundred-billion-dollar market cap, it may not seem like today’s prices are “early” for ETH. But if – big if – the future of stablecoins and decentralized apps comes to pass, you’ll want to own some. And today’s prices aren’t a bad spot to buy in. Housing is another 24/7 market… Not to say it’s anywhere near as liquid as crypto or stocks, but I’ll bet you can buy a house at 2am on a Saturday if you really want to. Nonetheless, it’s important to understand what’s happening there so we can understand what’s happening in the broader economy. Andy and Landon Swan, founders of LikeFolio and experts on all things related to consumer trends, recently shared some notes on the housing market with me that I think you’ll find valuable: At some point, the weak housing market has to recover… Right? U.S. existing home sales ticked 4.2% higher in February to an annualized rate of 4.26 million, but the overall trend remains flat. 
However, the current administration is doing everything in its power to bring rates down. And we’re starting to see some dominoes fall in line. The most recent CPI print came in ice cold – headline inflation fell 0.1% month over month, while core inflation rose just 0.2%. Traders are pricing in two to three rate cuts before year end, with the first potentially coming as soon as June. The 10-year yield dropped sharply on the news. Mortgage rates haven’t reacted yet. The 30-year fixed remains stuck around 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. But if the Fed cuts and yields keep sliding, housing demand could break out of its holding pattern – fast. There’s a coiled spring of buyers waiting. Inventory remains low, but it’s up 5.1% month over month, and the median existing home price just posted a 3.8% year-over-year gain – proof that demand is still alive, just waiting for relief on financing. This might be great news for those looking to make a move – yours truly among them. But that’s far from the only way to play a housing market recovery. Andy and Landon go on… Some stocks are especially well-positioned for a rate-driven housing rebound – whether through new home construction, real estate transaction volume, or furnishing newly purchased homes. Rocket Companies (RKT) is beefing itself up ahead of a more favorable home buying environment with strategic acquisitions and an artificial intelligence (AI) infusion. And when the market does spring back to life, LikeFolio data suggests Rocket will already have a head start. Consumer demand is growing at a nice clip – app usage across the board is up +13% year over year: 
This creates a nice stream of crossover when those users buy a house. We believe it could be a major player of the next housing boom. But not all real estate sector names are created equal… On the flipside, COVID-era darling Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) is struggling. Post-pandemic, as mortgage rates began to rise and the housing market cooled, Opendoor’s financial performance suffered tremendously. Revenue dropped off 55% in 2023. The stock plummeted 97% from its 2021 peak to under $1 a share. Today, consumer interest is fading. Opendoor digital traffic is down -32% year over year: 
And app usage mirrors this slide, falling 20%. Some traders still see upside. The stock trades at 0.1 times expected 2025 sales. If rates drop and housing demand returns, bulls argue Opendoor could recover. We disagree. Bottom line: Rocket is well positioned for a housing market reheat – and demand is on the rise. We think it could be in for a bullish surprise over the coming months. Opendoor? Not so much. This analysis is great for understanding how valuable Andy and Landon’s consumer insights are – not just for traditional retail stocks, but for the larger market trends impacting all sorts of consumer-facing companies. In fact, they just released a huge report on 14 top opportunities to take advantage of in the tariff turmoil – stocks caught up in the broader market sell-off, but behind the scenes, are experiencing an influx in consumer demand. It’s a member-exclusive report, but you can learn how to join here and get your hands on it today. Watch this space: robotics, humanoid and otherwise… You’d be forgiven for getting so caught up in tariff drama that you haven’t kept up on tech news. Don’t worry, we have. There’s been a lot of talk about applying AI over the past year. We want to see where all this massive infrastructure spend is going. We have all these impressive large language models (LLMs) and there’s a lot of pent-up demand for the chips that power them… But is that really it? ChatGPT helping us code and turning photographs into frames from Studio Ghibli films? Not by a long shot. The real AI application will take time, but it has the potential to utterly transform industries, services, and even just our day to day in ways that look downright sci-fi. What’s becoming clear is that we’ll need a different, less-digital-more-physical avenue for it. Two months back, rumors started swirling that Apple (AAPL) is planning two consumer-targeted home robots: One that sits on a table with a robotic arm and a large display, meant for home security, teleconferencing, and smart home tools, and another that’s mobile – essentially an iPad with Siri on wheels. That might not be the most exciting implementation – more like an evolution of the “smart home.” But it would be the first serious consumer robot product to market that’s not a vacuum. And that alone is significant. What’s really exciting, though, is the stuff Tesla (TSLA) is doing with its biped, Optimus. The company is reported to ramp up production this year. Optimus is more of a general-purpose application that can be used anywhere from factories and hazardous environment work to things like food service and nursing homes. Robotics brings AI into physical space – something with massive potential both for quality of life and investment potential. It’s not yet crystal clear what the future of robotics will look like. But that just confirms how early this trend still is – meaning, now’s the time to pay attention. If you’re looking for an easy, turnkey way of playing robotics, look at the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ). This ETF holds a bunch of companies either directly involved in the trend, like longtime Quantum Edge Pro recommendation Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), but also the key suppliers of the trend like Nvidia (NVDA) – which not only supplies essential chips, but also has its own robotics-focused AI models offered as a service. (Disclosure, I own NVDA at time of writing.) At TradeSmith, we’re applying AI in a way that can help you trade… For dedicated TradeSmith readers, the phrase “Predictive Alpha” probably just popped into your head. We were pioneers in the space of AI-based predictive models, introducing the first Predictive Alpha to TradeSmith’s investor toolkit just months after ChatGPT upended the investment landscape in early 2023. But just as AI has evolved so much over the past two years – getting better and better, with the lines between AI and reality continuing to blur – so has Predictive Alpha. We released our newest Predictive Alpha model on April 10. And right now, we’re opening up access to new subscribers for the first time in quite a while. It’s a highly capable model, with improved accuracy and user experience. But the coolest thing about this model is how we’ve set it up to continually improve over time – essentially turning it into an AI that teaches itself. It’s best shown with an example. On March 17, 2025, Predictive Alpha issued a projection on Oklo (OKLO), the nuclear energy company that happens to have AI industry leader Sam Altman on its board. Our model projected OKLO stock to drop -17.4% over the following 21 days. This was weeks before Liberation Day and the ensuing volatility. What did OKLO do? It fell -17.8%. That’s a margin of error of just over 2%… and one that’s in your favor. Here’s how the chart looks in our software: 
That alone is a powerful edge. You could’ve traded OKLO to the downside with put options if you wanted to. You could’ve sold covered calls if you own the stock. Or you could’ve simply waited to buy the stock a better price. All from Predictive Alpha’s projection. But what’s so much cooler is that this information is now integrated into the Predictive Alpha model. This trade result reinforces the fact that that the 21-day period is among the most accurate short-term projections for this particular stock. Every period going forward will continually improve the model and reinforce what works. And look, this is applied to the thousands of stocks we track with Predictive Alpha. So not only is Predictive Alpha incredibly useful now; it’s constantly getting better, too. That’s an AI application that, as far as I know, does not exist anywhere else. And it’s the key to pulling in big returns during the most unpredictable market environment in many years. I hope you’ll check out Keith’s recent presentation for Predictive Alpha right here, so you can see for yourself how valuable it is – and how it’s only getting better all the time. To your health and wealth, 
Michael Salvatore
Editor, TradeSmith Daily | 
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar