Measured in Gold, Some Things Haven't Changed Much in Value in Centuries
Everyone knows we've been using gold as money for thousands of years... The first gold coins were likely struck in an ancient kingdom in present-day Turkey. That happened around 550 B.C.
Measured in Gold, Some Things Haven't Changed Much in Value in Centuries
By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics
Everyone knows we've been using gold as money for thousands of years...
The first gold coins were likely struck in an ancient kingdom in present-day Turkey. That happened around 550 B.C.
Centuries later in Europe, the Romans used gold as a popular form of currency.
They called this basic monetary unit of gold an "aureus." Around the time of Julius Caesar in the 1st century B.C., these coins were about the size of a U.S. nickel. And they contained around 8 grams of pure gold.
Because they were so valuable, most ordinary Romans didn't own any aurei.
Instead, they used a more common and less valuable silver coin called a "denarius." It originally took 25 denarii to buy one aureus.
Since each denarius contained a bit less than 4 grams of pure silver, it gives us an idea of how much more valuable gold was to Romans around the time of Caesar.
Gold was almost 12 times more valuable than silver.
Few people were ever paid in aureus. Depending on location, even the prized Roman legionary soldiers earned 300 denarii per month.
They didn't live long lives, but they earned a good pay.
Romans earning 150 denarii a year were living relatively comfortable lives. That amount could pay for a small apartment, food, and the occasional bottle of wine.
Those folks making more or who managed to save up became landowners themselves.
For about 6 aurei, they could buy a cow or bull to work the land or produce milk. That's a bit less than 2 ounces of gold.
And it gets interesting when we compare that with values today...
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Based on recent prices, the same amount of gold would be worth about $4,560.
Meanwhile, if you were to go out and buy a good dairy cow or bull today, you might expect to spend around the same.
Here's another example...
A typical horse around the time of Caesar cost 5 aurei, or a bit more than an ounce of gold.
Based on recent gold prices, that would be worth around $3,700.
No, we don't use horses for transportation or on the battlefield like we used to. But an average recreational horse today can cost around $3,000.
This is another way of understanding gold's ability to store value.
To be clear, this isn't an exact science with these comparisons. Different factors come into play for these animals.
But the point is that when measured in gold, the values of important possessions like cattle and horses for people who lived more than 2,000 years ago aren't as different as you might think when compared with today.
In another 10 or 15 years, ranchers probably won't be willing to sell you a cow for around $4,560 or a horse for about $3,700.
But because of gold's ability to store value, a similar amount used more than 2,000 years ago might be enough in 10 to 15 years.
And yet, amid strong performance from stocks this year and all the election talk, you might not be hearing about gold very much.
However, it has been on a strong uptrend lately...
So far this year, the price of gold is up about 32%. That's better than the S&P 500 Index's roughly 21% gain so far this year. Take a look...
Digging deeper, we can also see that strong performance with gold producers.
In the Power Gauge, we can track this corner of the market with the VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX). It's an exchange-traded fund that holds a basket of companies involved in the gold mining industry.
GDX is up about 29% this year. And that's after a near 10% fall from its recent highs.
Right now, GDX also earns a "very bullish" rating in the Power Gauge. That means our system sees more upside ahead.
So the gold values of some things our ancestors needed might not have changed as much as you would think over the centuries. But as we all know, gold has been and will continue to be a store of value.
And with that store of value outperforming this year, that means I have my eye on it – and GDX – right now.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+1.02%
7
20
3
S&P 500
+1.2%
130
290
73
Nasdaq
+1.26%
25
65
10
Small Caps
+1.9%
533
1053
332
Bonds
+0.51%
Consumer Discretionary
+1.77%
13
31
6
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain somewhat Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+2.65%
Discretionary
+1.35%
Communication
+0.89%
Staples
+0.58%
Industrials
+0.35%
Real Estate
0.0%
Health Care
-0.34%
Financial
-0.43%
Materials
-0.48%
Utilities
-1.16%
Information Technology
-2.76%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Health Care Equipment Services
10
39
13
Over the past 6 months, the Health Care Equipment subsector (XHE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -5.96%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #13 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 3 slots over the past week.
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