It’s Election Night. You know the drill—everyone’s glued to their screens, watching the results roll in, feeling the tension rise by the minute. But while most people are locked in on the usual headlines and candidates’ speeches, there’s something unusual going on in the market. One trade in particular just caught my attention, and it’s not one of the obvious plays. I’m talking about GEO Group (GEO)—a company you don’t hear about often. They operate private prisons and mental health facilities across the U.S. and internationally. But tonight, they’re suddenly in the spotlight.
Here’s why: just before the market closed, our Hot Money Scanner went wild. GEO’s options activity surged 480%. Now, to give you some perspective—that’s a massive spike, especially in this corner of the market. 52,000 calls traded, versus just 7,700 puts. Let that sink in. Someone’s betting big that GEO’s got a major move ahead. Not only that, but they’re buying calls that expire next week, on November 15, specifically at the $17 and $18 strikes. This isn’t just some small hedge; these are short-dated, high-stakes trades. Whoever’s behind them is expecting something big and fast. Why GEO? Why tonight? Let’s rewind for a second. Think back to Trump’s first term. His administration put a huge focus on tightening immigration and “law and order” policies. They ramped up enforcement, and they leaned on private facilities like GEO’s to handle the increased demand for detention space. Then there was the reversal of Obama’s ban on federal contracts with private prisons. Under Trump, private prisons had their day in the sun. GEO was one of the big winners back then, rallying as the administration doubled down on policies that practically handed them a steady stream of new business. And here we are again. If Trump wins tonight, there’s a high chance his administration will bring back a similar approach: stricter immigration, tougher sentencing, and an open door for private prison operators. GEO is primed for that kind of environment. But here’s where it gets really interesting. GEO reports earnings on November 7—just a few days from now. If the election results are leaning Trump by then, GEO could see a surge even before the earnings hit. And given the short time frame on these options, the people making this bet are banking on this trade to explode, maybe even overnight. You don’t see this kind of setup every day. Two big events—Election Night and earnings—colliding in the span of just a week. This is the kind of situation where even lukewarm earnings might not matter if there’s a Trump win on the horizon. But let’s talk risk here, too. If Harris wins or looks like she’s pulling ahead, you’ll want to get out of this trade quickly. She’s been vocal about her stance against private prisons, and she favors more lenient immigration policies. For GEO, that’s a hit to the bottom line. Under her administration, GEO’s revenue could drop hard. This is where the trade becomes a waiting game. The early results are coming in, and the big money is already making its bets. Some people are looking to profit off this political shift no matter how it goes. So what’s the takeaway here? If you’re watching the market tonight, don’t just look at the obvious trades. GEO is the one with the high-stakes potential that hardly anyone’s talking about. And it’s all happening while most eyes are glued to the headlines. Whoever’s placing these bets sees GEO as a strong winner if Trump pulls off a win tonight. But like I said, it’s a fast-moving, high-stakes setup. This one could be a real moneymaker, but only if you’re ready to act fast. As the votes keep coming in, keep this trade in mind. It’s Election Night, and anything can happen. But I’d say GEO just might be one of the sharpest trades out there if the cards fall in Trump’s favor. Stay tuned; it’s going to be a wild ride. Trade smart, Josh Belanger You're reading a preview of Belanger's premium insights. Imagine having access to exclusive reports and high-conviction trade ideas every week, like 'The #1 Trade to Make Before Election Day' and 'Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed.' Don’t miss out—upgrade to unlock the full experience and take your trading to the next level.
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Selasa, 05 November 2024
The Trump Trade No One’s Watching Tonight…
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