October 25, 2024
A Bitcoin Buying Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up
Dear Subscriber,
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| By Juan Villaverde |
Markets never move in a straight line, especially in the world of crypto.
The 2024 bull market in particular has been a bumpy ride. Most coins topped out around March … before facing significant corrections.
Bitcoin (BTC, “A”) — the undisputed leader of the crypto market — didn’t see a particularly harsh correction. Its 320-day-cycle low in August was only 26% lower than its all-time high made in March.
In crypto, that’s impressively average for a bull market correction.
But in the intervening months, BTC bounced between these two levels in a long consolidation phase. It would drop 20% at a time … only to rebound quickly.
This “boring zone” — where volatility reigned yet nothing happened — has tested and exhausted traders and investors.
But that began to change in September.
Before, Bitcoin had been trading in a clear downtrend within its range:
As you can see, price action before Aug. 5 was marked with lower highs and lower lows dominating the chart.
Then, a subtle shift took place. One that most have overlooked.
Since Sept. 6, Bitcoin has stopped making new lows.
See for yourself:
This pattern is the key to understanding Bitcoin’s trend going forward.
It’s clearly trading in an uptrend now, with higher highs and higher lows.
That’s an undeniable sign of strength.
Why did this shift occur?
It comes down to the one thing that moves crypto markets: global liquidity.
As I’ve often emphasized, the amount of money and credit circulating in the global financial system has a notable impact on crypto prices.
Related story: It’s ‘Not-So-Secret Money Printing’ Season
And it just so happens that global liquidity peaked around March — right when Bitcoin topped. And it stated rising again in August.
Right as this shift occurred.
This time, most of that new liquidity has come out of China, as I’ve mentioned before. The U.S. was sitting on the sidelines.
Until recently, that is.
Now, even the U.S. is starting to get in on the action. The Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September, surprising many with the size of the cuts.
Now, lower interest rates aren’t a direct driver of crypto prices. But they do lead to increased global liquidity over time, which is bullish for crypto.
That brings us to the present.
Bitcoin crossed above $68,000 at the start of the week and has spent much of the time since correcting.
Some say this near-term lack of strength is because the Fed won’t be cutting rates much further. To justify this view, some analysts point to rising interest rates in the U.S. Treasury market since early October.
But this narrative misses the mark.
Here’s why: The recent rise in rates isn’t about fears of an imminent recession.
It’s driven by stronger-than-expected labor data, published on Oct. 4. The logic goes that if the labor market is strong, the Fed has less reason to cut rates further.
But let’s not forget the bigger picture. The labor market has actually been weakening for months, with unemployment steadily ticking up.
Since last year’s low, the unemployment rate has already climbed more than 0.7%. Historically, this has always prompted the Fed to start cutting rates.
Here’s another critical point: The Fed has never stopped at just one rate cut after unemployment rises by this much.
It will keep cutting, likely through 2025. And soon, I expect it will start to pump liquidity back into the system, as well.
The fact that Bitcoin is already back above $68,200 at the time of writing only gives me more confidence.
To me, this means only one thing …
Bitcoin’s recent correction is a buying opportunity, plain and simple.
As we approach Election Day, my Crypto Timing Model has been signaling a potential dip.
We may still see another dip down as we get closer to Nov. 5. But that just means we may have a second solid buying opportunity.
For now, though, if you have been waiting for a chance to jump into Bitcoin this cycle, you won’t want to let this opportunity pass you by.
Don’t get distracted by the noise and narratives. The next bull run is coming.
And to further prepare, I encourage you to join me for my urgent briefing this coming Tuesday, Oct. 29 at 2 p.m. Eastern.
In it, I’ll reveal what my Crypto Timing Model signals for the coming months …
And I’ll name the three coins I believe can outperform in this next leg up.
Bitcoin’s recent pullback presents a buying opportunity too good to pass up. But what I’ll reveal in my briefing could help you target opportunities that may just beat Bitcoin’s performance.
You don’t want to miss it.
Click here to save your seat. Then, set your calendar for Oct. 29 at 2 p.m. Eastern.
I hope to see you there!
Best,
Juan Villaverde
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