Weekly Roundup Hello, Reader. This weekend, I asked my wife, a physical therapist, what she thought had triggered the acute pain I was feeling in my right shoulder and neck. She promptly replied, "Too many birthdays." That response reminded me of the affliction that many public companies suffer. Even iconic, industry-leading companies sometimes struggle to maintain their leadership for more than a few decades. That's because the history of capitalism is a history of creative destruction. The creators of one particular era often become the "destroy-ees" of a subsequent era. Because of this phenomenon, a set-it-and-forget-it investment portfolio rarely thrives over the long term. The exceptions to the rule are folkloric, like the "friend of a friend" who forgot about the 10,000 shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) his mother gave him in 1989. Over the ensuing years, Apple would skyrocket more than 67,000% – boosting the $4,000 value of those ancient 10,000 shares into more than $2.7 million. More commonly, a "friend of a friend" opens an old desk drawer to find some long-forgotten stock certificate for Bethlehem Steel, Eastman Kodak, Blockbuster, or some other company that has long since scuttled off toward bankruptcy. The history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average underscores the tendency of capitalism to destroy as it creates. The 12 original members of the blue-chip index in 1896 featured names like American Cotton Oil Co., Distilling & Cattle Feeding Co., National Lead Co., U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber. U.S. Leather declared bankruptcy 15 years later. Most of the other original Dow members have long since faded into larger enterprises. Because of nonstop technological progress, the composition of the Dow and the S&P 500 have evolved continuously. They've changed their membership rosters like a runway model changes outfits. Inadvertently, the rock group Journey described the continuous effects of creative destruction in its legendary party/karaoke anthem "Don't Stop Believin'"… Some'll win, some will lose Some are born to sing the blues Whoa, the movie never ends It goes on and on and on and on Even though creative destruction "goes on and on and on," it doesn't do so at a consistent rate. Technology accelerates it. As the pace of technological progress accelerates exponentially, so does the pace of creative destruction. This dynamic helps explain why members of the major stock market indices tend to get the boot more quickly than they used to. The nearby chart illustrates this phenomenon. In the 1970s, stocks that belonged to the S&P 500 would spend about 32 years as members of the index. Today, however, the average S&P 500 stock spends only about 16 years – or half as much time – as a member of the index. This trend was well established, even before artificial intelligence burst onto the scene. But with the arrival of AI, the processes of both wealth creation and wealth destruction should accelerate dramatically. Therefore, we investors must remain alert to emerging investment opportunities. But at the same time, we must keep a wary eye on the companies and industries that AI will likely "disrupt." To be sure that you are not inviting victims of AI's creative destruction into your portfolio, join me today at my elite-trading service The Speculator. As a member, you will receive access The Speculator Model Portfolio, as well as my latest trade alerts. You will also receive access to all of my special reports, including 5 Victims of the Race to AGI. In this report, I've identified five specific companies that seem particularly vulnerable to AI's expanding presence in the global economy, especially as it blossoms into AGI, or artificial general intelligence. Now, let's take a look back at what we covered here at Smart Money last week… |
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