Bitcoin keeps winning, but it's set for a correction… Apple says "Farewell iCar… and Netflix's money"… Google's Gemini bias "completely unacceptable"… An-E 2.0's first big prediction…
By Michael Salvatore, Editor, TradeSmith Daily
By the time you read this email, it's entirely possible bitcoin will be at a new high.
It could also have retraced so severely that the sentiment pendulum is turning south.
That's the reality of bitcoin's round-the-clock price action. It's also a sign of the volatility we're dealing with… and the rapid shifts between euphoria and panic this asset inspires.
But as is my duty and pleasure as your TradeSmith Daily editor, I'll share what's happening in the charts before me… and give my take on what I think you should do with the information.
Between my black coffee breakfast and kale salad lunch on Wednesday, Bitcoin broke past $60k, then $61k, then $64k… then fell back to $60k. That represents close to $100 billion in value changing hands, in a single asset that some still like to call a "digital pet rock," in five hours.
So if you had any doubt the bitcoin trade is back in vogue, cast it aside. And if you're among the bold who've been buying since I first started talking about bitcoin back at the $35k level in November, you have reason to celebrate.
Now, though, it does look like it's setting up for a pullback. Check out the one-hour chart below.
Bitcoin's brief break to the $64k level soon began consolidating into a rising wedge pattern — a bearish pattern made up of a series of higher highs and higher lows that get closer together over time. As I write, we're breaking down from that pattern.
At the same time, momentum on the Relative Strength Index has made a series of lower highs — another bad sign.
If we see a break below $62k, the most likely next move is a trip back down below $60k. (Though once again, a lot can happen between me typing this and you reading it.)
So, is it time to take profits?
That's a question only you can answer for yourself. If you're looking at a gain that will make a meaningful difference in your life… by all means, take a few chips off the table.
BUT… my suggestion is to also leave a few in play.
Because everything I know about bitcoin tells me we're just starting this cycle. And a big reason why is the mother of all upcoming catalysts.
This is when the incoming supply of bitcoin that miners receive is set to cut in half. It makes bitcoin more and more scarce every few years.
This catalyst can send shockwaves through the crypto markets… and it has many times before. In 2012… 2016… 2020… And now, it's set to happen again on April 19, 2024.
Luke Lango, crypto expert and senior investment analyst at our corporate partner InvestorPlace, has been all over this story for the past several months.
And while he recommends people buy bitcoin ahead of the halving, it's far from the only thing he thinks investors should do.
Luke is an ace at finding opportunities just like these. And right now, you can learn about five new recommendations he's set to deliver to subscribers of his elite crypto advisory, Ultimate Crypto. (Details on that, and how to join Luke, right here.)
And before we shift gears — make sure you tune in to tomorrow's Daily. There you'll be treated to an exclusive interview I recorded with Luke about bitcoin and some of his top altcoin picks.
❖ Two Magnificent 7 stocks are under fire…
Shareholders of Apple (AAPL) faced a deluge of sour headlines this week.
Apple is abandoning its electric car program, after 10 years of "failure to launch."
Netflix has stopped letting its users pay through Apple's iTunes store, which was previously giving Apple a 30% cut of Netflix's core revenue stream. It's another sign of companies emboldened to avoid this cut after Epic Games' 2020 lawsuit.
Mixed speculation on demand for its Apple Vision Pro headset… some bullish, some bearish.
My take? Barring item 1, this is all small-time market noise that will roll off AAPL's shoulders.
And the electric-car shutdown is good news disguised as bad. It means Apple is cutting its losses and focusing on areas where it thinks it can innovate and grow — like mixed reality and artificial intelligence. Indeed, Tim Cook said Apple is "investing significantly" in generative A.I. for a release later this year.
That's hot on the heels of Google's (GOOG) own generative A.I., Gemini… And Apple can clearly learn a thing or two about how not to launch such a product.
Gemini has caught a lot of flak on social media for generating images you could call, for lack of any real better term, overly diverse.
Stuff like this, which was shared by the maybe-not-entirely-unbiased "End Wokeness" account on X (formerly known as Twitter):
Some text queries, too, have shown moments of hypocrisy and inconsistency. One example, showing Gemini's openness to jailing former president George W. Bush but not Barack Obama, stirred the pot.
I don't really have much to say on these results other than they're probably not a deliberate attempt to edit history or push an agenda, as some in the fear-factory headline game have been quick to suggest.
More likely, it's a case of best intentions — and the heavy influence of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs — gone awry.
Google CEO Sundar Pichai has gone on the record calling the results "completely unacceptable" and vowing to do better.
But the controversy has had measurable consequences, with the stock price off 5% in the last week. AAPL's, meanwhile, is down 2.5%.
Will this all blow over? As a shareholder of both stocks, I hope so… and think so.
But I'd be remiss not to mention Justice Clark Litle's take on the situation in TradeSmith Decoder. He's recommended shorting GOOGL on the basis of this fiasco, alongside a deterioration of Google's search quality that Justice calls a "core franchise threat"… and a technical double top in its share price.
Time will tell what happens with Google. But in the meantime, my take is there are plenty of better buying opportunities out there.
For example, An-E 2.0's first trade recommendation…
❖ An-E 2.0 launched Wednesday with a big call on an A.I. stock…
It's only fitting that the newest version of TradeSmith's A.I. trading tool would pick a high-quality A.I. stock as one of its first recommendations…
Here's the projection for ADBE, straight from the Predictive Alpha tool in TradeSmith Finance:
According to An-E, ADBE has a high probability of rising 4.5% in the next month. The earnings date coming up in two weeks may well be the catalyst that gets it there.
I should also note that the Ratings by TradeSmith tool gives it a Business Quality Score of 99 and a Strong Bullish 91 on the Ratings gauge — two pieces of evidence that this projection should play out as we expect. But the real magic happens with An-E 2.0's major upgrade…
You see, An-E is now capable of suggesting one simple technique to turn this 4.5% gain into something much, much bigger… over the same amount of time.
Predictive Alpha analysts John Jagerson and Wade Hansen explained all about this new and improved strategy for Predictive Alpha Options in a new trade alert on Wednesday morning – and because you're a Platinum subscriber, you've already got access. You can read all about it right here.
TradeSmith is not registered as an investment adviser and operates under the publishers' exemption of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The investments and strategies discussed in TradeSmith's content do not constitute personalized investment advice. Any trading or investment decisions you take are in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and not in reliance on TradeSmith. There are risks inherent in investing and past investment performance is not indicative of future results.
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