October was a spooky month, and not just on Halloween.
Selling intensified. Our Big Money Index (BMI) fell to oversold. And the selling clearly impacted our stocks.
There's a lot going on right now, so I recorded a special Quantum Edge Pro video issue to talk to you in person and bring you up to date on all the latest happenings and data.
You can view it here.
We'll cover three important topics:
Earnings
The first is earnings, which are generally good but not without some problems. Nearly 80% of companies that have reported exceeded earnings expectations. The blended growth rate (actual reports combined with anticipated results) is 2.7%. That may not sound like much, but if that holds, it would be the first quarter in which earnings grew since the third quarter of 2022.
That said, companies that don't give positive expectations for the future ("guidance") are getting smacked, even if they beat on earnings. We saw that with Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), which we are now planning to sell on a bounce.
Interest Rates
The next important topic is interest rates, where the news improved quite a bit. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its latest meeting, and Chair Jerome Powell admitted that the central bank has removed a recession from its models. That's very encouraging, and investors seem to realize that we should be done with rate hikes.
In addition, the Treasury Department's refunding plan was better than expected when it announced that it needed $76 billion less than anticipated. That helped ease some fears over out-of-control spending and soaring debt. It also brought bond yields down, which is key to a rally.
BMI
And finally, I'll show you the latest with the BMI, which has started to tick higher. The data showing us what we can expect moving forward is both compelling and encouraging.
We'll also walk through our Quantum Edge Pro portfolio, and I'll share my latest thoughts on all of our stocks, including the three that are deepest in the red: Align Technology (ALGN), Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC), and Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC). (All three are bouncing today, which is what we're looking for.)
I know it's been a tough few weeks. It's unsettling to see the value of your stocks go down. But we need to keep our emotional responses in check and be guided by data and logic. Data has pointed to brighter days for some time now, and we may finally be getting there.
I hope you'll watch the full video issue now. And as always, let me know if you have questions or comments. You can email jasonqe@tradesmith.com`.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar