I love my job... Behind the scenes of our brainstorming session... Two interesting comments from our marketing folks... Adapting to the new market reality... 'Flat for the next 10 years'... Avoiding commodities is a mistake, too... Don't be this type of investor...
 I (Dan Ferris) love my job...
Before I say anything else about that, I want to thank all of you for putting your trust in us at Stansberry Research. You're the driving force behind our business... Without you, I would likely be swimming among the sharks in the canyons of Manhattan (if any firm would even have me). But frankly, that option holds zero appeal for me. So with that in mind, I'd like to bring you behind the scenes in today's Digest... A group of us met yesterday in Annapolis, Maryland for a brainstorming session... We met at the Graduate Hotel. It's less than a mile from the United States Naval Academy. A lot of familiar Stansberry Research names were there... - Doc Eifrig from Retirement Millionaire, Income Intelligence, and more
- Brett Eversole from True Wealth, True Wealth Systems, and more
- Matt McCall from The McCall Report and MegaTrend Investor
- Alan Gula from Stansberry's Investment Advisory
- Greg Diamond from Ten Stock Trader
- Dave Lashmet from Stansberry Venture Technology
- Thomas Carroll from Prosperity Investor
- Eric Wade from Crypto Capital and Crypto Cashflow
- Mike Barrett from my Extreme Value team and 10x Investor
- John Engel from Stansberry Innovations Report
- Director of Research Matt Weinschenk
Joel Litman and Rob Spivey even joined us for the day from our corporate affiliate Altimetry. We discussed a lot of great ideas throughout the roughly seven-hour session. That's the case whenever we all get together in one room. You'll get to see some of these ideas in the months ahead. Others will never see the light of day. That's the beauty of figuring out what you, our valued subscribers, want to read (and watch, in the case of our YouTube channel... or listen to, in the case of our Stansberry Investor Hour podcast). So when the marketing folks got up to speak, I leaned forward... You see, they know how investors like you interact with our business. They can see what you're craving, how you're thinking, and how you're spending your hard-earned money. Their insights are the difference between my message reaching few or many people. Two comments in particular interested me... First, they noted that most investors tend to be late. In other words, they get bearish only after the markets have declined a lot. And they get bullish only after the markets have risen a lot. And what our marketing folks said next floored me... Most investors are on the fence right now. They're afraid to commit to a bullish or bearish view. They're on the sidelines, waiting for a clear trend to break one way or the other. That's a huge mistake. As you know, I think the biggest financial mega-bubble of all time peaked in 2020 and 2021... And we're now in the early days of the potentially devastating aftermath. That doesn't mean you should sell everything. And it definitely doesn't mean you should head for the hills with all your cash and as many guns and groceries as you can carry. If that's your preference, enjoy. But I know most of you would rather understand what's happening so you can save and invest better and enjoy a more secure retirement one day. You can't afford to stay on the sidelines forever. You must adapt to the new market reality. Unfortunately, fear and uncertainty will get the best of many folks. By the time they're ready to change, it will be too late. For now, let's assume that's not you. And let's also assume that you're ready to hear all about the new market reality so that you can adapt and protect and grow your portfolio. So what is that new reality? I'll start with what the man sitting next to me at yesterday's meeting said... Thomas Carroll is our brilliant health care analyst. Before joining Stansberry Research, Tom worked for nearly two decades in various roles related to health care investing. He consistently ranked high for industry-stock-picking awards. And Fortune magazine once named him as the No. 1 U.S. health care analyst. At one point during the meeting, Tom leaned over to me and said... The S&P 500 is going to be flat for the next 10 years. In at least that way, Tom's view of the stock market mirrors my own... As I've said many times, long-running sideways markets often follow big financial mega-bubbles. They grind on, ratchet up and down, and fail to make new highs for many years. For example, the U.S. stock market peaked in 1929. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't make a new high until 1954 – 25 years later. The Japanese mega-bubble peaked in 1989. And its stock market still hasn't made a new high – 34 years later. Finally, the dot-com mega-bubble peaked in March 2000. And the Nasdaq Composite Index didn't make a new high until 2015 – 15 years later. Maybe Tom's "next 10 years" comment is too conservative. We're finally moving on from the biggest financial mega-bubble in all recorded history. So it's only logical to expect a long, brutal sideways market that grinds up and down and frustrates investors for at least a decade. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if it lasts two decades or more. That leads me into another tidbit from our marketing folks... They noted that investors are less likely to want to take our advice because the sideways market leaves them feeling too uncertain. Frankly, that's a little disheartening to me... That's because some investing strategies work great during times like this... We talked about some of them at yesterday's meeting, too. For example, Stansberry's Investment Advisory lead analyst Alan Gula brought up value investing as an attractive strategy today. And he shared some charts to support that view. That's right in my wheelhouse, of course... Most recently, I talked about this idea in a special report for The Ferris Report subscribers last December. It was called, "The Best of the Best: The Only Stocks That Can Safely 8x Your Money in America's 'Dead Zone.'" As I wrote in that report... A 2013 study published by the Value Partners Center for Investing of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology ("HKUST") Business School shows that value stocks generated significant gains during the sideways market that followed Japan's mega-bubble peak in December 1989. Value stocks are the cheapest stocks in the market by metrics like price-to-book (P/B) value, price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and price-to-cash-flow (P/CF) ratio. Growth stocks are those stocks whose revenues and earnings are growing fastest. The Value Partners Center researchers studied the Japanese stock market between 1975 and 2011. And they determined that value stocks generated positive returns during the entire period, even though the Japanese stock market fell as much as 62%. These researchers also analyzed the growth of $1 invested in various Japanese value portfolios between 1990 and 2011 (the first 21 years of the country's sideways market). Based on P/B value, P/E ratio, P/CF ratio, and dividend yield, they found a $1 investment in 1990 would have made you an average gain of more than 800% by 2011. Then, I recommended two ways for The Ferris Report subscribers to profit from this trend in the coming years. And as the report's headline implies, I showed why I believe "8x" potential is possible. The Extreme Value strategy that Mike Barrett and I use will play right into this angle as well. It's likely about to experience an epic five- or 10-year run of outperformance (and perhaps even longer). Remember, these are long-term trends. They'll last many years. The study of Japanese stocks covered 21 years – from 1990 to 2011. And its sideways market has been running for 34 years. The shortest sideways market among the big mega-bubbles I mentioned was 15 years. That's a long time for investors to sit on the fence and let frustration keep them from saving and investing for retirement. You can't afford to avoid investing your capital for that long. I can't blame you for feeling like the sideways market is too risky and difficult to invest in... But I hope the data about value strategies during the Japan sideways market can help you overcome your trepidations about the current market. It's the only way to get ahead... In fact, the wealthiest investors tend to be more active in difficult markets like that. They're just waiting for assets to get cheaper so they can buy more of them. That's why the total net worth of the top 1% of the U.S. population soars to new highs after every financial crisis. These folks buy assets as others dump them. Then, they wait and enjoy the gains that inevitably follow. Nothing goes down forever – even if it takes years to hit a new high. Now, I alluded earlier to two comments from the marketing folks that caught my attention. The first one was the idea of folks mistakenly staying on the sidelines amid a difficult market. The marketing folks' second comment was that many people don't like commodities right now... That's a mistake, too. We're living through a unique set of circumstances in the commodities markets today... Oil is the mother of all commodities because you can't produce any of the others without it. But the world's governments have declared war on fossil fuels... They all want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And fossil fuel producers are among their primary targets. The problem is, we can't have a modern standard of living without fossil fuels. We also need cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia-based fertilizers. (I'm sure the keyboard cowboys disagree with me. Please file your complaints through e-mail to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. I would love to respond in the mailbag section of Monday's Digest.) Oil companies are making record profits – even though they're investing less in finding new supplies. Falling supply and steady, rising demand is a great recipe for a raging bull market. And yet, our marketing folks said people just aren't interested in commodities right now... Oil is trading about 40% below last year's high. That scares investors too much. So when we've come to them recently with ideas about buying oil-related companies, they've balked. That's too bad... Buying commodity-related stocks after their prices have fallen substantially is a great way to make huge, quick gains. For example, oil got crushed as the world shut down during the COVID-19 pandemic. But then, it bounced back in a big way from October 2020 to June 2022. And the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund (XOP) surged more than 320% over that span. I suggested another commodity-related idea to the group of editors yesterday... Copper. Like oil, copper will benefit greatly from the "green revolution." Almost every important technology in this shift uses a lot of copper... Electric vehicles use up to four times more copper than cars with internal-combustion engines. Copper is also an essential ingredient in wind- and solar-power efforts. But again, investors don't like copper right now... It's down more than 20% from its 2022 high. And once again, that's really too bad... Nobody wanted copper or related stocks as the pandemic crushed the market in March 2020, either. But like oil, the Global X Copper Miners Fund (COPX) soared more than 380% from that point through April 2022. Investors have a bad habit of panicking at the first sign of trouble... They take losses at times when they should get even more bullish and up the ante. That's especially the case with commodities. This space tends to be much more volatile than other assets and investments. I'm not saying it's easy to buy a stock that has fallen a lot. And of course, you shouldn't always buy falling stocks. In many cases, they're falling because they're not good stocks... Home-goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond's (BBBY) recent bankruptcy underscores that idea better than anything. No matter how far it fell, it was never a good buy. The same thing is probably unfolding with First Republic Bank (FRC). It suffered a "bank run" on its deposits just like the one that caused Silicon Valley Bank to fail last month. Sometimes, I'm afraid I seem too bearish to our valued subscribers... I'm bearish on the overall stock market. And I believe a long, sideways market is unfolding. But you can – and should – still invest... As I said earlier, you just need to adapt to the new market reality. You need to focus on the kinds of strategies that tend to perform well in the aftermath of mega-bubbles... Value investing is one. Commodity investing is another. And they're just two examples. Our gathering of editors in Annapolis couldn't have come at a better time. I'm glad the marketing folks joined us as well... They helped me realize that most investors don't have a strategy for the part of their wealth they control. Instead, far too many people just react and behave emotionally. That generally results in buying at the top and selling at the bottom. It's bad enough to behave that way in a bull market. But it's disastrous to behave that way in a tough market like we're in now – and one that I believe we'll endure for many years. So as investors facing a long, sideways market, what should you do? For the best way to handle the market uncertainty, consider what trader and author John Netto recently told me in an interview for an upcoming Stansberry Investor Hour episode... He said the best strategy is consistently doing the opposite of losing traders. After all, being on the other side of a consistent loser makes you a consistent winner. That's mostly a joke, of course. But it does lead us to a valuable takeaway... Don't be an investor who does nothing at all. If you want to grow your wealth and enjoy retirement, you can't sit idle forever. You need to take your money into your own hands and build a better future for yourself... That's why you've come to us at Stansberry Research. And it's why many of the brightest minds at our company gathered yesterday in Annapolis. We might be facing a long, sideways market. But something will go up in the days, weeks, months, and years ahead. And we'll do our best to point you to all the best opportunities. Man, I love my job. New 52-week highs (as of 4/27/23): General Mills (GIS), Hershey (HSY), Eli Lilly (LLY), McDonald's (MCD), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS), Motorola Solutions (MSI), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), PulteGroup (PHM), Starbucks (SBUX), and Unilever (UL). The mailbag is quiet today. What's on your mind? As always, you can e-mail your thoughts, comments, and observations to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. Good investing, Dan Ferris
Baltimore, Maryland
April 28, 2023
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,103.4% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 950.9% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data | 10/09/08 | 777.7% | Extreme Value | Ferris | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 660.0% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 02/21/20 | 639.5% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade | WRB
W.R. Berkley | 03/16/12 | 506.9% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 478.4% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | AFG
American Financial | 10/12/12 | 412.4% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | FSMEX
Fidelity Sel Med | 09/03/08 | 316.0% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | ALS-T
Altius Minerals | 02/16/09 | 314.1% | Extreme Value | Ferris | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 4 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 2 | Extreme Value | Ferris | | 1 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 1,508.0% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE-USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,172.9% | Crypto Capital | Wade | POLY/USD
Polymath | 05/19/20 | 1,066.5% | Crypto Capital | Wade | MATIC/USD
Polygon | 02/25/21 | 895.0% | Crypto Capital | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 684.7% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 5.96 years | 1,466% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Band Protocol crypto | | 0.32 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra crypto | | 0.41 years | 1,164% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Inovio Pharma.^ | INO | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold^ | SA | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Frontier crypto | | 0.08 years | 978% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin crypto | | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 4.12 years | 777% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Intellia Therapeutics | NTLA | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. | 
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