A few more signs of recession... Yet stocks rebound... Not all stocks are created equal... The sector to own at the end of bear markets... A rare appearance... Don't forget your 'blind spots'...
 It's all happening...
Take your pick of what leading indicator you want to use... The U.S. economy is on its way to an "official" recession... Today, the U.S. government published its first crack at the first-quarter gross domestic product ("GDP"), and it showed 1.1% annualized growth. That's barely half the number that many mainstream economists were expecting... and well below the 2.6% annualized growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. As global news service Reuters reported, inventory reductions made up a big chunk of the decline as U.S. businesses prepared for an economic slowdown in the rest of the year... Private inventory investment declined at a $1.6 billion pace, the first decrease since the third quarter of 2021. The drop, led by wholesalers and manufacturers, followed a $136.5 billion rate of increase in the fourth quarter... Inventories chopped off 2.26 percentage points from GDP growth, the most in two years, after adding 1.47 percentage points in the prior quarter. Business spending on equipment contracted for a second straight quarter. Residential real estate investments – meaning homebuilding, remodeling, and mortgage activity – also slowed for the eighth straight quarter. Add this report to the pile of concerns... As we reported last week, Americans have been spending less and less money lately... The Federal Reserve economists are even warning of a likely "mild" recession now... Small businesses are increasingly becoming less inclined to hire people... And large businesses are making mainstream headlines by laying people off. One of those companies that recently cut costs by cutting employees is fast-food giant McDonald's (MCD). It reported its quarterly earnings yesterday... And, among other things, management said it was preparing the business for a recession. As our Stansberry NewsWire's Kevin Sanford reported this morning, the company's CEO said customers are starting to order fewer items. What's more, in certain markets, they're starting to push back against higher prices the company had been able to pass along to customers in the past two years. At this point, even if a recession is never deemed "here," enough people are behaving like one is coming to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. And it's all in the name of killing 40-year-high inflation... And the Fed probably won't even succeed in beating down inflation if it "cries uncle" early amid rising unemployment. As for stocks... The markets have bounced back from a two-day slide. The benchmark S&P 500 Index was up close to 2% with Meta Platforms (META) influencing things with a 15% gain after its earnings release, which included beefing up its second-quarter outlook. The S&P 500 remains below its most recent highs from earlier this year... But it's trading just above its 50-day moving average, higher than its 200-day moving average, and about 13% higher than its lows back in October. Yet there are risks ahead to consider... namely, the impacts of a recession on prices of stocks and other assets, as our colleague and Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase wrote to you about just yesterday. What to do?... I (Corey McLaughlin) have heard from a few people recently who feel like they don't know what to do when it comes to growing their wealth today, and they're not alone. As we also reported lately, a lot of folks have parked relatively extreme amounts of cash on the sidelines. They're not invested in anything while 5% inflation (or even higher, depending on how you measure it) eats away at their net worths. At the very least, short-term Treasury bills are a good option to consider for your cash... as are high-quality, dividend-paying stocks that will reward you even in a downturn with more shares. But what if you're searching for new buys today? In stocks, I think the main question for most people is this: Is the recession entirely "priced in," or is there more downside ahead? As Mike wrote yesterday, history suggests there should be some more downside ahead for the broader markets before a new bull run begins. Yet not all stocks are created equal, either. We saw this throughout 2022 as some once-popular names dropped 80% or more... while others were off less than 20%... and some, like Hershey (HSY), were even up while the S&P 500 was down double digits. And we're seeing it this year, too... I doubt most people are aware that six of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors are down over the past three months, but that tech stocks are up 9% and consumer staples are up 5%. To this point, don't forget your 'blind spots'... Yes, some more rocky waters may be ahead, but some stocks have already tanked way more than others over the past year-plus. That makes their risk-reward balance a little more palatable, even with leading indicators flashing warning signs about the economy... Some people may get lucky over a short period of time without considering risk. But as any long-term investor will tell you, managing the upside versus the downside of any investment is crucial. If you have cash on hand today and are searching for a place to buy, one of our longest-tenured analysts says there is only one place to look... a large market sector that typically gets overlooked or misunderstood. I can't give too much away here, but Stansberry Research senior analyst Bryan Beach just released a compelling presentation with all the details... You can watch it for free here. And just know that he doesn't do this kind of thing very often... In fact, this presentation is only the second time Bryan has agreed to make a special on-camera appearance in his 11 years with Stansberry Research. On top of that, he has only spoken publicly a handful of times, almost exclusively in front of Stansberry Alliance members. But with so many people stuck when it comes to growing their wealth right now, Bryan is coming forward to spread the word about this "blind spot" that he thinks millions of people will miss. He doesn't want Stansberry Research readers to be among them. A message we want you to hear... As Bryan, the longtime editor of the Stansberry Venture Value and part of the team behind our flagship Stansberry's Investment Advisory, says... I know full well that people are hitting a point of mental exhaustion when it comes to figuring out how to grow their money... now and for the future. But I believe what we're here to talk about could end up giving them a very smart and very lucrative option for what to do next. As Bryan explains in the presentation, this is a sector of the market that's already cheaper than most, has led stocks out of every bear market in the past 90 years, and has individual names within it that present tremendous buying opportunities today. For investors who act accordingly, Bryan says they could potentially see a run of triple-digit returns... the likes of which we haven't seen since the beginning of the historic bull run that lasted from 2009 until 2020. Existing Venture Value subscribers can find this latest work right here. And if you don't subscribe already, click here to get all the details, including how to access Bryan's top opportunities, a free year of his work, and – just for tuning in – a free recommendation on the small, overlooked company that he says could double your money over the next year or two. | | | | On the Edge of a Credit Crisis In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Stansberry Research senior analyst Mike DiBiase joins the show to talk about the cracks he's seeing in the economy... and what assets to buy when the next credit crisis hits... Click here to listen to this episode right now. And for more free video and audio content, subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel... and don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter. | | | | | New 52-week highs (as of 4/26/23): Microsoft (MSFT), Flutter Entertainment (PDYPY), Starbucks (SBUX), and Zimmer Biomet (ZBH). In today's mailbag, feedback on Mike DiBiase's Wednesday Digest... What's on your mind? As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Very excellent Digest Mr. DiBiase! Tell that to the pundits on Yahoo Finance who are screaming BUY BUY BUY!" – Paid-up subscriber Jose T. All the best, Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
April 27, 2023
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,068.3% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 920.1% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data | 10/09/08 | 760.2% | Extreme Value | Ferris | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 631.5% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 02/21/20 | 604.9% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade | WRB
W.R. Berkley | 03/16/12 | 502.7% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 468.3% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | AFG
American Financial | 10/12/12 | 407.9% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | FSMEX
Fidelity Sel Med | 09/03/08 | 317.9% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | ALS-T
Altius Minerals | 02/16/09 | 313.8% | Extreme Value | Ferris | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 4 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 2 | Extreme Value | Ferris | | 1 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 1,457.2% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE-USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,165.2% | Crypto Capital | Wade | POLY/USD
Polymath | 05/19/20 | 1,064.0% | Crypto Capital | Wade | MATIC/USD
Polygon | 02/25/21 | 887.9% | Crypto Capital | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 656.7% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 5.96 years | 1,466% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Band Protocol crypto | | 0.32 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra crypto | | 0.41 years | 1,164% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Inovio Pharma.^ | INO | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold^ | SA | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Frontier crypto | | 0.08 years | 978% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin crypto | | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 4.12 years | 777% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Intellia Therapeutics | NTLA | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. | 
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