Senin, 27 Februari 2023

Investor Flows Signal Risk-Off for Real

 
   
     
   
 
FEB 27 2023
 
   
DON YOCHAM
3 Big Risks Sidelining Investor Capital
 

After sliding off the peak for the better part of last year, investor flows into stocks finally turned negative, signaling a critical shift in investor sentiment.
 
 

The chart above from Yardeni Research tracks total investor flows into equity-oriented mutual funds and ETF over the last 10 years. As of the end of December, investors aren’t simply buying less stocks… they’re now net sellers.

Markets could be entering a “Risk-Off for Real” environment.

Capital is headed for the sidelines. And I see three big risks looming over investor’s heads that will make cash king over the coming months.

The first is the Federal Reserve.

Markets are coming to grips with the fact that the Fed must hike higher for longer. That drags down spending, which drags down corporate earnings. Not to mention the fact that higher interest rates make future earnings worth less today. Stock prices will fall to adjust.

Plus, given the stubborn tightness in labor markets and consumer strength, inflation could prove tougher to beat than anyone expects.

The second big risk is war.

The war in Ukraine has remained within Ukraine. But recent events show the potential for war spilling over those borders.

For instance:
 
• The Biden Administration is very loudly claiming that China has clear intentions of providing direct military aid to Russia.
• The U.S., along with its allies, have stepped up military aid to include fighter jets and tanks.
• Russian drones have been seen patrolling Norwegian and Dutch energy infrastructure in the North Sea, raising the potential for direct attacks on NATO countries.
• Given investigative reporter Seymour Hersh’s report providing evidence that the U.S. sabotaged the Nord Stream pipeline back in September, one could see why Russia may consider retaliating. Make of it what you will, but I find these claims hard to dismiss.

And between tension in Taiwan, North Korean missile tests, Chinese spy balloons, and Iranian support for Russia, the geopolitical atmosphere is only heating up.

The third big risk is the potential for the debt ceiling debate to turn truly ugly.

Whether or not Republicans dig in their heels on spending remains to be seen. But Republicans view brinkmanship as an advantage going into elections. And you shouldn’t rule out government shut-downs and the rising risk of Treasury default as we move through spring.

The tide on equities has turned. So keep your positions light and your powder dry.

Take What the Markets Give You,
 
Don Yocham, CFA
JACK CARTER
An Inflation Boost for Your Bottom Line
 

Rampant inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve has really hit our economy hard…

In fact, all major 401k plans lost money last year…
 
 

But as bad as that was, here’s where it gets worse:

Even if the stock market recovers, the damage of inflation could force many, many people to work an extra 5… maybe even 10 years – unless they have a way to supplement their income.

Think about it… Do you remember when the price of a cheeseburger was only $0.25?

This shouldn’t shock anyone… But we’ll never see that price again.

You see, with inflation prices only go up. So, even when the rate of inflation comes back down… 

The cost of living doesn’t get cheaper.

Prices normalize at that new, higher cost.

So, even when inflation stabilizes… 

You’ll still need more money in the piggy bank to cover the new “normalized” cost of living…

And that’s why now over a quarter of Americans are saying they have to delay their retirements…
 
 

That’s millions of people.

The fact is everyday Americans, young or old, are absolutely starved for income right now.

So I got together with my team to see if there was some way we could help…

Turns out we can…

So, I’ve launched a brand new initiative to show Americans how to pull in a few hundred extra bucks each week.

Click here to access the battle plan now (special bonus inside)
MICAH LAMAR
Your Monday Update on AAPL
 
 
 

Last week, I used my favorite momentum indicator, the MACD, to get an idea where Apple Inc, (AAPL) was heading. 

It predicted a pullback to be imminent, despite the bullish start to the week we’re seeing right now. 

I’d suggested if you were long on the stock with any short-term instrument like calls, you might want to take the profits. I continue to encourage caution here. 

Stats show us that bearish cycles tend to be longer than bullish. Add to that, it’s typically risky to place calls when the MACD is bearish. 

This rounded bottom pattern can take a while to play out. I believe we’re in phase 2, the sideways trend, for AAPL. 

Looking at seasonality, summer is often a good time for tech stocks. In fact, historically, July and August are typically standout months for this stock. 

That looks to be when we’ll be hitting phase 3 of the rounded bottom when the share price should recover.

I’ll update you again next Monday. 

Have a good week!
 
Micah
JEFFRY TURNMIRE’S MORNING MONSTER 🎥
Don’t Drop Your Guard
 
 
 

This week is light on breaking economic news.

Quarterly earnings are winding down. But CPI and the next FOMC meeting are just a couple weeks out.

Will we get some calm in the market before the storm comes?

I will dive into these topics live on tomorrow’s Morning Monster.  Plus, I’ll share with you what I see coming for SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM, and other high potential stocks for the day.

I go live every weekday morning  at 9:15 ET on YouTube. You are free to join me live right here. 
   
 
Diposting oleh di

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)