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More Proof the Fed has Gone AWOL

Money & Crisis

May 26, 2021

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More Proof the Fed has Gone AWOL

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

Over the last two days, I’ve outlined how gold is telling us that the Fed WILL NOT move to stop inflation.

By way of a quick recap…

  1. The Fed can stop inflation anytime it wants by tightening monetary policy.
  1. The multi-trillion-dollar question for the last year has been, “WILL the Fed act to stop inflation or not?”
  1. Gold has just indicated the answer is probably “NOT” as it erupted out of a nine-month downtrend.

Gold is not the only inflation hedge that is SCREAMING about the Fed’s inaction. In fact, it’s not even the most important!

Other Signs of HOT Inflation

Indeed, the Fed’s own research has stated the single best predictor of future inflation is FOOD inflation.

I realize this sounds odd. After all, publicly the Fed states that its preferred measures of inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

And yet, the Fed’s OWN RESEARCH has shown these metrics do a horrible job of predicting future inflation. Not only that, but the Fed has KNOWN this since 2001!

In a little-known paper, published way back in 2001, Fed researchers wrote the following:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure… Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all

– Source: StLouisFed.org

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  1. The Fed has admitted that its official inflation measures do not accurately predict future inflation.
  1. The Fed admitted that FOOD prices are a much better predictor of future inflation. In fact, food prices were a better predictor of inflation than the Fed’s PCE, non-durables goods, transportation services, housing, clothing, energy and more.

When I first started writing about food inflation back in February, the Rogers International Commodity Index (RJA) chart looked like this:

Chart: Commodities Break out

You’re looking at the end of a 10-year bear market. And this chart has only gotten uglier since February. Now it looks like this:

Chart: Commodities continue

And this is 100% the Fed’s fault. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the chart below which shows the same ETN (RJA) overlaid on an inverted-U.S. Dollar ($USD) (meaning when the $USD falls this line rises).

Chart: RJA vs. USD

As you can see, RJA is tracking the inverted $USD very closely. Put another way, it is the $USD’s DROP, facilitated by the Fed devaluing it via loose monetary policy, that is unleashing inflation.

So the next time you see a Fed official talking about how inflation is difficult to understand and that it is likely “transitory,” remember that it is THE FED that is causing this.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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