Senin, 24 Mei 2021

Inflation is Roaring — This Report Confirms It

Money & Crisis

May 24, 2021

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Inflation is Roaring — This Report Confirms It

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

Well, it’s confirmed, inflation is no longer just running hot… it is ROARING.

The Markit’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey that interviews managers in the private sector to see what they are experiencing in terms of business. It’s widely considered to be one of the best gauges for the real state of the economy.

With that in mind, the Markit’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI for May 2021 just revealed that the cost for input prices, as well as new business at service providers, have hit their highest levels since 2009.

As one well known economist put it, “average selling prices for goods and services are both rising at unprecedented rates, which will feed through to higher consumer inflation in coming months.”

Remember, inflation doesn’t just appear overnight. Instead, it slowly works its way into the financial system in phases…

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Click here for the details.

  • Phase 1: Raw material prices spike
  • Phase 2: Factory gate prices spike
  • Phase 3: Retail prices spike

The first stage occurs in the manufacturing segment of the economy when you see producers suddenly paying more for the raw goods and commodities they use to produce finished goods.

We first hit this stage several months ago as the chart below illustrates. The price of raw materials such as copper, lumber and even gasoline are all up triple digits in the last 12 months.

Raw Material Prices are Soaring

Now, one or two months of higher commodities or raw goods is no big deal, but once you're talking 6-8 months of steadily rising prices it's significant. At that point manufacturers are forced to start raising the prices of finished goods or face shrinking profit margins.

The Markit’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI has confirmed that we are now officially at this point, revealing that the prices managers are paying for goods are rising at unprecedented rates.

Put another way, managers at real businesses in the U.S. are seeing the prices they must pay for raw goods and services rise faster than ever before!

This explains why gold has suddenly caught a bid, exploding out of a nine-month downtrend.

Gold Breaking Out the Topside

The chart above is telling us that gold was confused as to whether or not the Fed would step in to stop inflation for most of the last year.

No longer. Gold is now telling us that the Fed is NOT going to stop inflation. It is telling us that inflation is here and only going to get worse.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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