2020 was a year for the books. We endured an impeachment trial, a global pandemic, hundreds of thousands of related American deaths, a government-mandated business shutdown, the biggest economic contraction since the Great Depression, the fastest bear market in history, the fastest bull market in history, a contentious election, and effective vaccines in record time. And 2021 is off to a challenging start as well, beginning with an assault on the Capitol building and now a second impeachment. Wow. It's a lot to say, much less digest. No wonder millions of investors found the last 12 months so confounding. Yet through all the chaos and volatility, Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green has provided a calm voice, a rational perspective and plenty of dead-on investment research. Let's think back... A year ago, most investors expected a smooth continuation of the ongoing economic boom. After all, the market was coming off a good year - the S&P 500 returned 30.4% in 2019 - and the trend was our friend. But that always can - and sometimes will - change in a hurry. That's exactly what Alex emphasized to readers in the first week of 2020. In his January 6 column, he wrote... Today I'll reveal the unvarnished truth about how things will turn out in 2020. However, it's a bitter truth you may not want to hear: No one knows... Economic forecasting and market timing can't be done accurately and consistently and, therefore, don't add value.
He advised readers to embrace this uncertainty and protect their portfolios by asset allocating properly, diversifying broadly and running trailing stops behind individual stock positions. That turned out to be valuable advice indeed when the market began to melt down in mid-February. Yet Alex reminded readers to stick with their discipline. In his March 16 column - just six days before the market bottom - he told readers not to panic: Stocks have always bounced back from adversity. Always. ... At a future date - and it could be much sooner than you expect - investors will look back at today's market and realize that they could have responded in a way that was decent... great... or awful. The awful investor sells in a panic - and always finds reasons to justify it. The decent investor at least stands pat - and reinvests his or her dividends, if possible. The best investors? They are moving money out of cash or bonds and into beaten-down, high-quality stocks.
Could there possibly have been better or more sensible advice as millions of investors panicked and hit the exits? |
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