Hello Traders!
Today is October 1. We are now entering Fall, the most prolific trading season of the year and over the past few days we're already seeing a positive rise in market sentiment. Before we embark on what I hope will be another fun ride this Fall Season, I want to again impress and express my perspective to you, in hopes that we can help you become more successful over time.
Because the well-being of our members and readers are our first and most important consideration.
In a letter dated January 26, 1900, American President Theodore Roosevelt wrote,
I have always been fond of the West African proverb: "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far."
Roosevelt later described this as "the exercise of intelligent forethought and of decisive action sufficiently far in advance of any likely crisis."
Our readers that have been with us for a while know that I always preach about the importance of "risk". Knowing risk is far more important than expecting to gain.
Risk is everywhere. If you want to "gain" in an investment then you need to take that "gain" from someone else, who is going to lose. When you lose, someone else gains. That struggle causes a needed competition and, as in any competition, nobody wins all the time. Therefore, by definition, learning to deal with loss is necessary. But if you win more than you lose or your winning percentages are higher than your losing percentages, you can become a winning trader.
EVERYONE gains and loses when they invest.
So why is risk analysis more important that gain predictions?
If you can limit the amount of money you could lose in a trade and maximize the potential gain of a trade, then over time you will win.
No trader is defined by a single trade. Any trade could become a loss. Any trade could become a gain.
Do not see what you want to see. Remove emotion. See what is true, see what is there, see what the numbers tell you.
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Lately the numbers have been confusing. There is so much uncertainty in the world surrounding COVID-19, jobless claims, interest rates, upcoming elections, and changing international trade regulations that market sentiment balances on the pin of a needle.
Any day could be a gain.
Any day could be a loss.
But as a trader, if you can limit your losses and maximize your gains, then it doesn't matter which way the scales tilt - over time you will win.
This is easier said than done. Watching trades rise and fall can be frustrating. Knowing where you want to get in and where you want to get out beforehand can help. Knowing how much you're willing to lose beforehand can help.
If you enter a trade at $1.00 because you believe it could go to $1.20 (a 20% gain), then know when it reaches $1.20 you will sell it. And then sell it. Don't say to yourself after it reaches $1.20 that you're going to hold it longer because you now think it might go to $1.25, because it might go back to $1.00.
Remember, you're not the only trader. Other traders could be competing for the same trade and they will be selling at $1.20, which will drop the price. Beat them to it. Make your gain. Be a winner.
Same example, if you enter the trade at $1.00 because you believe it will go to $1.20, but instead of going up, it goes down to $0.90 (a 10% loss). Know ahead of time that you're willing to take a 10% loss and sell it at $0.90. Don't tell yourself at $0.90 that it could rebound and go back up to break even, or that you still may make money on that trade if it does eventually go to $1.20. Sell it at $0.90. Don't wait. Take your loss.
Why?
2 reasons that I can think of and there are probably dozens more:
1) Over time, if you keep trading wins of 20% gains and losses of 10% loss, your trading will net you a 10% gain.
- You invested $1.00 and sold at $1.20, making $0.20.
- You invested $1.00 and sold at $0.90, losing $0.10
$0.20 - $0.10 = a gain of $0.10.
2) IMPORTANT: If a stock goes from $1.00 to $0.90 it is a 10% loss. BUT, for that stock to go from $0.90 back to $1.00 it would require a gain of 11.1%.
If it drops 20% to $0.80 it would need to gain 25% to get back to $1.00.
This paradox widens the further an investment falls:
Loss: 30% to $0.70 needs to then gain 42.9% to recover the loss
Loss: 40% to $0.60 needs to then gain 66.7% to recover the loss
Loss: 50% to $0.50 needs to then gain 100% to recover the loss
Loss: 60% to $0.40 needs to then gain 150% to recover the loss
Loss: 70% to $0.30 needs to then gain 234% to recover the loss
Even with smaller companies 234% gains can be rare.
Which is why I speak so often about the importance of knowing risk and measuring it against reward.
The largest and most successful investment funds in the world are known as "Hedge Funds". To "hedge" means to use financial instruments and/or market strategies to offset risk.
But why are they called "Hedge Funds"?
They literally title themselves NOT for their ability to GAIN, but for their ability to LIMIT LOSS by calculating RISK.
If you want to be successful as a trader, these are concepts you need to understand. Otherwise you're just blindly throwing darts. Sure you might hit the right target, but even then it might be at the wrong time.
And in the smaller markets, which we generally focus on, this is acceptable for many people. Small companies may not be included in their retirement portfolio and they like or miss the excitement of something that moves fast, like a small company or the prospect of uncovering a "hidden gem" in its early days.
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Or some people just like the gamble, the chance of buying something small could turn out big. The long shot that pays off.
And both of those scenarios are OK too, if you can handle the downside. Because with higher reward potential comes higher risk potential.
Risk and reward. Gains and losses. A never-ending battle between two sides of the same coin.
There will always be winners and losers in every trade - we want you to be a winner!
Knowledge is an important tool to get you there. Today's technology is another. Learn to use them while you learn to become a better, more successful trader.
Of the market today, Roosevelt might say, "Tread softly and have quick fingers; you will go far."
I think I'd agree with that.
There are many trading and investing ideologies from "value investing", which focuses on the intrinsic value of a security, to fundamental analysis, to technical analysis. Some use a long-term hold philosophy, while others use a quick trade method. For today's discussion on "risk" we looked at short-term holds, whereas an entry and an exit could be calculated or estimated based on either technical or fundamental factors. Over the coming days and weeks we'll continue to explore other perspectives. Remember, these are my views and I could be wrong or my views might be different than your own. That's OK. The important thing is understanding the concept, and how to make it your own, so that you too can manage risk and be the successful trader we want you to be!
Let's get ready for a fun October. Market sentiment is rising and the past 2 profiles we looked at gained:
Last week: 80%
This week: 140%
We receive a large number of messages from members like you inquiring how to receive our profile alerts more quickly, the fastest communication we currently offer is our free text message service. Therefore, we always recommend adding yourself to our Free Text Alerts, from your cell phone text "SCC" to 760-670-3130.
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Here's too an exciting month ahead. We'll be getting started with a new Mega-Profile Alert early next week.
Have a wonderful afternoon,
Editor, SCC
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