But global oil production fell for the first time in a decade, as growth in the U.S. was more than offset by OPEC production cuts. Given the impact COVID-19 is having on the world's energy markets, it looks as if 2018 may stand as the high mark for oil production for at least a couple of years. Over the past 35 years, global oil consumption has risen by 39 million BPD, an average increase of 1.1 million BPD each year. Last year's rise fell just short of that average. Natural Gas Natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels. It is also fastest-growing fossil fuel, with a global 2.6% average annual growth rate over the past decade. By comparison, oil grew at a rate of 1.3% over the past decade, and coal grew globally at 0.8%. Looking ahead, natural gas is projected to be the only fossil fuel that will see substantial demand growth over the next two decades. Over the past decade, the U.S. shale gas boom propelled the U.S. into the global lead among natural producers. In 2019, the U.S. held a commanding 23.1% share of global natural gas production, well ahead of Russia (17.0%) and even the entire Middle East (17.4%). Coal Global coal production increased by 1.5%, led by increases in China and Indonesia. But global coal consumption declined by 0.6% and coal's share in primary energy fell to the lowest level in 16 years. Coal demand in OECD countries fell to the lowest level in the history of the Review, which dates to 1965. This demand continues to be a function of whether a country is still developing, as those countries (i.e., non-OECD countries) continue to drive the world's coal demand. Coal is often called the dirtiest fossil fuel. What is meant by that? Fossil fuels are composed of carbon and hydrogen. They are hydrocarbons. When carbon is combusted, it forms carbon dioxide. When hydrogen is combusted it forms water. Coal contains a higher percentage of carbon than does oil or natural gas. So, when coal is combusted, it produces more carbon dioxide per unit of energy than oil or natural gas will produce. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), combustion of coal emits about 210 pounds of CO2 per million British thermal units (BTU) of energy. In comparison, oil emits about 160 pounds per million BTU, and natural gas emits 117 pounds per million BTU. Another issue with coal is that there are a lot of other associated emissions from coal-fired power plants. Historically, coal plants emitted a lot of sulfur dioxide, which causes acid rain. Regulations eventually reined in that problem, but coal-fired power plants still emit pollutants like mercury. They even emit more radioactive elements than a nuclear power plant. Thus, there have been many regulations passed that have attempted to lower coal's impact on the environment. However, because of the various pollution issues associated with coal, most developed countries have moved away from coal-fired power. The decline in the U.S. has been dramatic. Coal consumption in the U.S. peaked in 2005, but remained at a constant level until the financial crisis of 2008. At that point, U.S. coal consumption began to decline at an average annual rate of 5.1% for a decade. U.S. coal consumption declined another 14.6% in 2019 and is now 50.4% below the peak level. Cheap natural gas and renewables have displaced coal consumption in power plants in recent years. The dramatic decline in U.S. coal consumption is the primary reason U.S. CO2 emissions have fallen sharply in the past decade. Renewables and Nuclear Power Renewable energy continued its impressive growth streak with the largest increase in consumption on record. Wind was the largest contributor, but solar was close behind. China once again led all countries in consumption of renewables, followed by the U.S. and Japan. The share of renewables in power generation increased to 10.4%, surpassing nuclear power for the first time. Nuclear consumption rose at the fastest level since 2004, with China and Japan providing the largest contributions to the increase. How should investors view the latest Review? It seems clear that coal is in a decline phase. While there will still be coal production for a number of years, investing in this sector is trying to pick a handful of winners from a losing sector. It's not a good bet. Oil and natural gas will continue to grow. But oil demand in the transportation sector is going to face increasing competition from electric vehicles. There is a growing belief that oil demand will peak within a decade. Natural gas, on the other hand, is expected to continue to grow at a brisk pace for the next two decades. As the cleanest fossil fuel, it will likely maintain a place among utilities as a source of firm power to complement a growing portfolio of renewable power. |
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