Senin, 13 Juli 2020

The Fuse is Now Lit on Over $10 Trillion in Corporate Debt

July 13, 2020

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Money & Crisis

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The Fuse is Now Lit on Over $10 Trillion in Corporate Debt

Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

We are now entering the time in which the true structural damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will be revealed.

Back in April when the economy was on lockdown, it became clear that many large businesses were in serious trouble – specifically restaurants, commercial real estate, and retail.

At that time, multiple large chains informed their lenders that they would NOT be paying rent in April. Here's a headline from March 26:

Cheesecake Factory, Subway, other major retailers tell landlords they can't pay April rent due to coronavirus

Source: Yahoo! Finance 

To deal with this issue, banks and large financial institutions gave their borrowers 90-day forbearances on their debt payments… meaning those groups wouldn't be required to make debt payments for 90 days.

Put another way, the banks told these businesses: "Don't worry about making any debt payments for 90 days… think of this as a debt holiday."

That was in April… exactly 90 days ago.

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This means these same businesses will now have to start making debt payments again.

And if they have not yet truly recovered from the economic shutdown… we're about to see a tsunami of defaults and bankruptcies, as well as layoffs and shutdowns. 

This process has already begun. Simply take a look at a few recent headlines:  

  • Wells Fargo reportedly preparing to cut thousands of jobs
  • United Airlines warns it could furlough 36,000 employees by Oct. 1 as demand remains low
  • Storied apparel brand Brooks Brothers files for bankruptcy as it seeks a buyer and closes dozens of stores
  • Muji files for bankruptcy
  • GNC files for bankruptcy and will close up to 1,200 stores
  • 24 Hour Fitness files for bankruptcy, closes more than 100 gyms

All told, US corporations have over $10 trillion in debt. And corporate leverage is WORSE today than it was in 2008.

It's only going to get worse from here on out.

That said, there is a way to play this…

Smart investors are already taking steps to profit from the next major downturn in the markets.

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Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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