The stock market's behavior took a noticeable turn last week. Further below, I'll explain what I think it means. But first, a short pop quiz is in order: 1. Can you name the top five holdings in the S&P 500? 2. Can you name the top five holdings in the NASDAQ 100? You may be surprised to learn that the answer to both questions is exactly the same. Both indexes are cap-weighted, led by Apple (NSDQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT), Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN), Alphabet (NSDQ: GOOGL/GOOG), and Facebook (NSDQ: FB). And since all five of those companies are listed on NASDAQ, they are included in both indexes. Those five stocks account for roughly 45% of the performance of the NASDAQ 100 and 25% of the S&P 500. That's why they are so important to the overall stock market. As the old saying goes, "whichever way the head goes, the body will follow." However, it's beginning to look like the body may have a mind of its own. Last week, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), an index fund based on the NASDAQ 100, fell 1.4%. At the same time, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) lost just 0.16%. That may not sound like much of a difference, but it is. Especially when you consider how much influence those same five stocks have on both funds. In short, it means most other stocks performed better than they did. That difference can be illustrated by the performance of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). It gained 0.5% last week thanks to the other 495 companies not named Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, or Facebook. 2001 Redux? That raises an important question. Are we witnessing a pivot away from growth stocks towards value, or are tech stocks so overvalued that this is just a technical correction that will be over in a few days? I think the answer to that question is "neither." Most value stocks are trading at low earnings multiples for a good reason. Their revenue streams are under duress due to the coronavirus pandemic. It may not be until next year that we know how many of them will turn out. |
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