Senin, 01 Juni 2020

Proceed with Extreme Caution

June 1, 2020

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Money & Crisis

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Proceed with Extreme Caution

Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

Now is the time to be extra careful.

The US has erupted in riots/civil unrest. The economic and cultural impacts of these events will be extreme.

History has shown us that riots can have long-lasting, highly negative effects on local economies for years after the riots have ended.

Despite all of this horrific news, the markets are up somewhat this morning. And that is a bad sign.

It reminds me of what the markets were doing in late February: while the COVID-19 pandemic/economic shut down were just around the corner, the markets were actually rallying (red square in the chart below).

Stocks rallied before the pandemic

Then this happened.

Stocks tanked

Fast forward to today, and the week before a large portion of the economy literally went up in flames, the markets are rallying once again.

stocks are rallying again

Let's be clear… the US economy was already in a depression before the riots started. The riots have made things exponentially worse. The potential fallout from this is tremendous.

And we could indeed see another crash hit.

Again, now is the time to be careful – with yourself, your loved ones, and your investments.

That said, don't be emotional about this. Use a trading tool to help you decide when it's time to move to the sidelines.

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A Key Metric in Determining Market Collapses

The metric I'm watching is the one I told you about last week: the 50-week moving average. This is the sum of the market's weekly closing prices over the prior 50 weeks, divided by 50.

Looking at the chart below, you can see that if you got out of stocks whenever the S&P 500 broke below this line, you'd have avoided some of the worst collapses including the March meltdown of 2020 (red circles in the chart below).

tracking market

More recently, the S&P 500 just broke above this line for the first time since the March lows (red circle on the right in the chart below).

The question now is whether this is a real break and stocks are going to enter a prologue bull market… or if stocks are going to roll over again and collapse as they did in late 2018 (red circle on the left).

can stocks maintain

The 50-week moving average is one of the key metrics I'm favoring for when to prepare for the next leg down.

As I continue to assert, the primary trend is up. But given how horrific the economy is, we need to keep one eye on the exits to ensure we avoid another collapse. And thanks to the 50-week moving average, we can take the guesswork out of when to make a move to the sidelines.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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