Tesla's Tough Road Ahead

Electric vehicles (EVs) undoubtedly represent a disruptive industry. But ev...

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Tesla's Tough Road Ahead By Robert Rapier Electric vehicles (EVs) undoubtedly represent a disruptive industry. But every disruptive industry that ever existed is littered with the memories of companies that failed to survive the disruption. I was using a Netscape web browser and AltaVista search engine before Google, now part of Alphabet (NSDQ: GOOGL), even existed as a company. But only Google survived, to become a household name. There are many who believe that EV maker Tesla (NSDQ: TSLA) will prove the dominate force in its industry. Tesla already dominates today, but the company has racked up net losses in every year it has been in business. I think it's likely that Tesla will end up like AltaVista: a trailblazer that ultimately lost ground to competitors. From Desire to Demand Last week Tesla announced a small profit for the fourth quarter of 2018, but a loss of nearly one billion dollars for all of 2018. During the conference call to discuss earnings, CEO Elon Musk made a strange remark about demand for the company's Model 3, which is the best-selling EV in the U.S.: The demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It's just like people literally don't have the money to buy the car. It's got nothing to do with desire. They just don't have enough money in their bank account. If the car can be made more affordable, the demand is extraordinary.

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The problem is, Musk conflates desire with demand. Prices can always prevent desire from equaling demand. Tesla has long promised to sell a Model 3 for $35,000, which would be in the ballpark of the average new car price in the U.S. Instead, it has relied on a $7,500 tax credit to get the cheapest Model 3 to $44,000. However, after selling 200,000 vehicles in the U.S., that tax credit starts to phase out. From January 1 of this year, Tesla buyers only get $3,750. In July the credit falls to $1,875, before disappearing in 2020. This creates a tough road ahead for a company that has struggled with profitability. Meanwhile, the competition is heating up. All major auto manufacturers either have EV models available, or soon will. Some of these cars are more affordable than the Model 3, but Tata Motors' (NYSE: TTM) Jaguar, Daimler's (OTC: DDAIF) Mercedes, and Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAF) are all debuting luxury model EVs to directly compete with the Model 3. During the call, Tesla lowered capex guidance for 2019 to $2.5 billion, raising questions about whether it can hit ambitious production goals. Near the end of the earnings call, Musk announced that CFO Deepak Ahuja is retiring. Ahuja had been in his position less than two years following the abrupt departure of the previous CFO. There's no doubt that Tesla's sales will continue to grow impressively this year, but it will be challenging to maintain the momentum. And with mounting competition and evaporating tax credits, the company will find it ever harder to turn a profit. Are you finding it ever harder to turn a profit? One person who can help is my colleague Jim Fink. Jim just uncovered a handful of stocks that could each turn $10,000 into $110,000. That's right. The investing legend who has spent the past three years quietly plundering the options market, scoring 269 winners for 12,116% in total profits, is now lifting the curtain on stock picks that are on the verge of crushing the broader market. Each of these tiny, under-the-radar companies is poised to soar up to 1,000%. Want to get the details, before it's too late? Click here for a free presentation.

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