Is Organovo Worth The Risk?

There is a long waiting list for human patients in need of healthy organs, ...

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Is Organovo Worth The Risk? By Jim Pearce There is a long waiting list for human patients in need of healthy organs, and a very limited supply. That is the premise for the bestselling novel Chromosome 6, where vital organs such as livers and kidneys are harvested from apes to sell on the black market. Thanks to the science being performed by Organovo Holdings (NSDQ: ONVO), the solution to this problem may be considerably less exotic. Soon, organ replacement may be as simple as bioprinting the required body tissue as shown in this video. Yes, it may sound farfetched but it may not be far off, either. Already, replacement tissue patches can be bioprinted and implanted in infected organs. Tests on small animals indicate these patches can prolong organ functionality for at least four months. For someone waiting on an organ donor list, those extra months could be the difference between life and death. Medical research companies like Organovo burn through cash quickly. Eventually, either the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) approves its treatment or the company goes out of business. It is too soon to say which way Organovo stock will go, but 2019 could be the year that determines its fate. See also: "Our Therapix Biosciences Stock Prediction in 2019 (Buy or Sell)" How Has Organovo Stock Performed? Organovo stock got off to a strong start after its initial public offering (IPO) in February 2012. Less than six months after ONVO began trading it shot up more than 600%. It quickly fell, and then jumped more than 800% early in 2014. What Is Organovo's Long Term Stock History? Since early 2014, it has been all downhill for Organovo stock. All of its early gains have been wiped out. Since its IPO seven years ago, ONVO is down 17% while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained 130%. How Has Organovo Stock Performed Recently? Despite a brief surge last summer, Organovo stock did worse than the overall stock market in 2018. Shares of ONVO fell 28.6% for the year, compared to a 4.6% decline for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Who Are Organovo's Rivals? Most of Organovo's competitors are privately held and do not trade on an exchange. For that reason, there is no stock available for investors to own in those companies. However, there are two publicly traded companies that compete with Organovo stock for investor capital. Materialise NVS (NSDQ: MTLS) Materialise was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Belgium. MTLS has a market cap of nearly $1 billion, more than four times greater than ONVO. Another difference; Materialise generates sales revenue and is profitable, unlike Organovo which is purely a research firm. However, the comparison is not entirely fair since bioprinting is only a small part of Materialise's product line. Materialise also sells hardware and software for several types of three-dimensional (3D) printing applications. In 2018, its manufacturing and software segments accounted for 72% of sales, with its medical group contributing 28% of total revenue.

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Stratasys Ltd. (NSDQ: SSYS) At a market cap of $1.5 billion, Stratasys is the biggest of the publicly traded medical printing stocks on the market. Similar to Materialise, sales of medical products is not its primary business. In fact, Stratasys does not offer any live tissue bioprinting products at all. However, Stratasys has the financial resources and business acumen to quickly enter the bioprinting business if it chooses to do so. In that regard, it can be viewed as either a potential competitor or future collaborator with Organovo. It could even acquire Organovo if it wanted to enter the bioprinting space with a complete product line with which to compete with Materialise. Will Organovo Stock Go Up in 2019 (Should you Buy?) The biotech sector is notoriously volatile. Although Organovo stock has dropped steadily over the past five years, it could suddenly reverse course. For that to occur, the company would have to find a way to boost its sales revenue. What might make that happen? A major drug company may decide to partner with Organovo to distribute one of its approved products. Included in its commentary accompanying its Q3 results, the company stated that it "will continue to opportunistically generate revenue to support its therapeutic research mission by leveraging its cell and in vitro tissue platform." Will Organovo Stock Go Down in 2019 (Should you Sell?) Thus far, Organovo has relied entirely on investor capital and research grants to fund its operations. At this point, the company must rely on the $35.2 million of cash it held at the start of 2019 to see it through the end of the year. At an annual burn rate of $21 million, any unexpected setbacks could force Organovo to raise more capital. In addition, several of Organovo's primary competitors are overseas and operate under a friendlier regulatory environment. Obtaining FDA approval for distribution of a new medical treatment in the United States can be an onerous process. However, it is not an impediment for companies doing business in Asia and Europe. Overall Organovo Stock Forecast and Prediction for 2019 Organovo expects to request FDA approval for its first investigational new drug (IND) application in 2020, so we see no reason to buy the stock this year. Many things can happen between now and then that would be detrimental to Organovo stock. The company could run low on cash and be forced into diluting its stock by issuing more shares as it did in 2015. Or an unexpected setback could push the IND request back months or years. Even worse, the FDA may decide to shut down the current study altogether. Until FDA approval is obtained, the only unexpected good news that could push the stock a lot higher would be a merger or acquisition. At a market cap of less than $200 million, Organovo could easily be bought by one of the large drug companies seeking control of its registered patents. But unless that happens, we see no reason to believe that Organovo stock is headed higher this year.

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