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EDITOR'S NOTE: |
Don't watch Powell alone. I'm going live at 2 PM ET with Don and Blake to cover what actually matters while everyone else analyzes his prepared remarks. We'll be tracking the real coordination from Japan and showing you how to trade VWAP around this theater. |
Join us here |
–Garrett Baldwin |
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Everyone's watching Powell today. They're gonna analyze his tie choice, dissect every word, and completely miss what actually matters. |
The real story is happening 6,000 miles away in Tokyo. |
Jerome Powell is going to say the most boring things you've ever heard in your lifetime. The Fed is not going to cut rates today—if they cut rates today, I might have to retire because I'd be that bad at this. |
But here's what actually matters: the Fed is doing what it has to do to help play defense for the Bank of Japan. |
Your Neighbor's Thermostat Controls Your Heat |
Imagine you go to turn your thermostat up to 80 degrees, but it doesn't get hot because next door, someone else turns theirs down to 68. Your neighbor's thermostat impacts the heat in your house. |
That's what's happening when Japan changes its policy—it impacts us here. When we change our policy, it impacts them there. |
The Bank for International Settlements said back in April: Japan's actions impact the US market, and the US market's actions impact Japan. It used to be independent. Now it's not. |
The Coordination You're Not Supposed to See |
I can't prove it, but I'm pretty sure there was coordination by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. I wouldn't know what it would look like or what they actually did. |
But I will point this out: we hit 7,000 on momentum, pushed higher. The FNGD is breaking down, about to cross under its 50-day moving average. That means liquidity is flowing in—capital moving somewhere despite all my deep concerns. |
There is action being taken. I don't know what it is. I'll have to wait probably another eight to nine days to find out. |
Why Japan Is the Hidden Driver |
Japan is the hidden driver of this market right now. The yen volatility continues to suggest intervention or at least coordination behind the scenes. |
They're not going to announce this. They don't want to admit they are engaging in what is very clearly centralized planning. |
Looking back at 2024: the money market stress selloff, the Nikkei event where Japan intervened and markets crashed, then September—that little downturn where the People's Bank of China and other central banks likely coordinated to save China for about 15 minutes. |
These intervention actions rarely get announced unless they're terminal for an economy. |
What's Really Happening Right Now |
The funding stress between the dollar and Japan is the story of this year. Look at the dollar—it's weakening. That's a downward move on the dollar as everything else moves up. |
Silver's up 7.5%. Palladium's up 7%—I'm long palladium, up 81% since we got in. We're in the mania part now. If it's your first time, welcome. |
But here's the thing: if you're up on gold, you're up on silver, you're not making money. Something is wrong with our currency. |
The Real Fed Meeting Strategy |
This is not going to be about the Fed itself. The Fed meeting everyone's watching is missing half the equation. |
I'll be live from 2 o'clock to 4:30 today covering this. We're going to talk volume-weighted average price trading and how to actually trade around Fed announcements. |
But don't expect Powell to address the real driver—Japan's coordination and what it means for dollar funding stress. |
The expectations: no Fed cut today. Only 15% chance of a rate cut in March. June is where the first rate cut is currently priced in. |
Here's the problem they won't discuss: they're not beating inflation. Services are still sticky. Cutting rates here while allowing rates to continue increasing in Japan creates massive uncertainty. |
This Is the Time to Play Defense |
This is the time to play defense. You have six hours to reassess your portfolio, ask why you own something, and make sure you're holding conviction. |
It's okay to raise cash. It's okay to take profits. The purpose of a market is to sell. |
If you're up on something and feeling guarded, take some gains. If you're behind, don't start chasing high-beta underperformers. We're at a Mendoza line in the market. |
Don't force anything. Powell's the story everyone's watching, but Japan's the story that actually matters. |
The Fed meeting is theater. The real coordination is happening behind the scenes. |
Don't watch Powell's press conference alone. Join me, Don Kaufman, and Blake Young at 2 PM ET today. |
We're live in an hour… |
Stay Positive, |
Garrett Baldwin |
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Be honest - do you think markets are actually free? |
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