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More Reading from MarketBeat.com Why Gold Loves Trump as Much as Trump Loves GoldAuthor: Jordan Chussler. Published: 11/26/2025. 
At a Glance- Gold has surged over 58% in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and macroeconomic policy shifts under Trump’s second term.
- Ongoing legal and political uncertainty around Trump’s tariff authority could further fuel volatility and gold prices.
- A weakening U.S. dollar and potential interest rate cuts in 2026 may sustain gold’s bullish momentum into the next year.
Gold has had a banner year in 2025, gaining more than 58% and far outperforming broader markets. For context, the S&P 500 is up about 14%, while Bitcoin has lost roughly 6% (with Bitcoin-leveraged stocks performing much worse than the crypto itself). Among precious metals, silver has outshone gold with a 78% year-to-date (YTD) gain. Still, gold appears well-positioned to sustain its rally into 2026—fueled in part by President Donald Trump's return to power and the market's reaction to his policies. Volatility Is Once Again on the RiseA major shift is coming to the gold market — the world's largest gold buyer is preparing to launch a new way for everyday Americans to invest in gold with a click, and when it goes live in 2026 it could unleash a wave of demand unlike anything we've seen. Garrett Goggin believes one $1.60 gold stock is positioned to be a prime beneficiary of this surge — a move where even a small price jump could mean a meaningful gain — along with several other miners set to ride the same trend. Click here to see the $1.60 gold stock and Garrett's full list of recommendations Precious metals tend to run strongly during periods of heightened volatility. That's because volatility prompts investors to shift capital from riskier assets like stocks into safe-haven assets such as gold. Volatility has indeed been a hallmark of Trump's second administration. From Inauguration Day through March 10, the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE: VIX) rose about 85% amid rumors of the president's tariff plans. The VIX then pulled back roughly 20% by the end of March before surging to a five-year high in April—jumping 135% in the first week of that month during the market's so-called tariff tantrum. The index later fell about 70% by the end of September after the president walked back tariffs on several countries. Since then it has regained roughly 35%, raising concerns about another bout of elevated volatility into year-end. The SCOTUS Tariff Decision LoomsA consequential legal development could further affect gold's trajectory: the U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether Trump can impose tariffs without Congressional approval. If the Supreme Court rules in Trump's favor, tariffs could remain in place without congressional approval, potentially eroding the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and pushing gold prices higher. But a ruling against the administration could also boost gold. On Sunday, Fortune reported that "President Donald Trump's administration is working behind the scenes on fallback options if the Supreme Court strikes down one of his major tariff authorities." Any such contingency plans are likely to sustain investor anxiety and, in turn, demand for safe-haven assets. Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Instability Drive Gold PricesDespite campaign pledges to reduce global conflict, Trump's second term has not produced meaningful geopolitical de‑escalation. The Russia‑Ukraine war, now entering its fourth year, continues with no end in sight. Although Trump helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in early October, fighting has continued, with near-daily strikes in the Gaza Strip. Since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, the price of gold has risen more than 125%. More recently, the administration has increased military activity in the Caribbean, signaling potential intervention in Venezuela. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier is positioned near the South American nation, roughly 15,000 U.S. troops are in the region, and B-52 and B-1 bombers have conducted simulated bombing exercises near Venezuela's airspace—an escalation that can heighten geopolitical risk perceptions. Geopolitical instability has historically boosted demand for gold, and the current environment shows no sign of reversing that trend. Dollar Weakness and Rate Cuts Are Strengthening Gold's Bull CaseTwo additional drivers for gold are a weaker dollar and interest-rate cuts. The U.S. dollar index is down nearly 8% from its year-to-date high, which it reached a week before Trump's inauguration. Trump's tariff announcements, which helped trigger the dollar's early decline this year, have also raised inflation expectations. At the same time, soft economic data—including rising unemployment, increasing layoffs, and weak nonfarm payrolls—have already led the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year. If current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is replaced by a more dovish Trump ally when his term ends in May 2026, further rate cuts could follow next year. Lower interest rates typically make yield-producing assets less attractive and strengthen gold's appeal. When rates fall, investors often rotate into gold for its upside potential—an outcome that becomes more likely if the Fed continues down a path of looser monetary policy.
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