Hey there! You're reading The Budget Analyst — a calm space in the noise of markets.
Here we collect signals, patterns, and quiet insights that help you see the bigger picture.
No rush, no hype — just clarity for your financial journey. | | | | In partnership with InvestorPlace Media, RAD Intel, Stansberry Research. |
|
|
|
| | | | | Markets, like empires, rarely crumble overnight—they rotate. We are witnessing a "silent handover" where the capital-heavy giants of the last decade (The Magnificent 7) are yielding ground to agile, decentralized, and autonomous technologies. | From the drone-filled skies of Ukraine to the stablecoin-powered rails of global finance, the data suggests the "next big thing" isn't a new iPhone—it's the infrastructure replacing it. |
| |
| | |
| | | | | The Ceiling for the "Mag 7" | The "Magnificent 7" trade that defined the early 2020s is officially showing its age. By late 2025, stalwarts like Yardeni Research and Morningstar began issuing "rotation" warnings, advising investors to look beyond the mega-caps as growth saturates. | The most brutal data point comes from the EV sector, where BYD has decisively dethroned Tesla. In the first nine months of 2025, BYD sold 1.61 million pure EVs compared to Tesla's 1.22 million. Even in the UK, Tesla's registrations dropped 19% in November 2025 while BYD's tripled. | Meanwhile, Amazon is facing its own ceiling. Forecasts suggest the number of active sellers could actually decline to 1.7 million by 2026 as the marketplace saturates—a sharp pivot from the "endless growth" narrative of the past decade. | Are Bloomberg and the media just catching up? Eric Fry released his controversial "Sell This, Buy That" broadcast just days ago. In it, he made some surprising calls. First, "Sell Amazon (AMZN)." Then, he gave away an alternative "BUY" recommendation—a little-known ecommerce stock he says is "more like buying Amazon stock in 2005." | |
| |
| | |
| | | | | The $3 Million vs. $20,000 Problem | The rotation isn't just financial; it's kinetic. Modern warfare has hit a "cost crisis" that favors cheap autonomy over expensive defense. | The defining stat of 2025 is the 150:1 cost disadvantage faced by traditional militaries. Firing a $3–$5 million Patriot interceptor to shoot down a $20,000 Shahed drone is mathematically unsustainable. | We saw this play out in June 2025, when Ukraine launched a swarm of 117 drones to bypass traditional air defense radars entirely. The lesson? "Cheap AI" is defeating "Expensive Hardware" because radar can't stop what it can't afford to shoot. | Defense changed overnight. In a single coordinated operation, an autonomous drone swarm bypassed advanced defenses with shocking precision. Radar blinded. Missile systems frozen. AI didn't just participate—AI dominated. Now, RAD Intel's foundational AI systems are moving into the private sector. | |
| |
| | |
| | | | | The "Silent" Flippening | While pundits debated Bitcoin's price, stablecoins quietly became the plumbing of the global economy. | The a16z "State of Crypto 2025" report dropped a bombshell statistic: Stablecoins processed $46 trillion in transaction volume over the last year. Even when "adjusted" to remove bot activity, the volume hit $9 trillion—more than 5x PayPal's volume and roughly half of Visa's total throughput. | This isn't just for crypto-natives. JPMorgan's rebranded Kinexys unit now processes over $2 billion in daily transactions. The "Smart Dollar" isn't a campaign slogan; it's already moving billions on bank-grade blockchains every single day. | Bigger than Visa and Mastercard combined. What started as a bold idea from President Trump is now going mainstream. His "Smart Dollar" is now moving more money than Visa and Mastercard combined. I believe this could be the biggest financial shift since credit cards started appearing in every American's wallet. | | The Great Overtake | The "Great Rotation" is defined by efficiency overtaking incumbency. | Tesla is losing to faster manufacturers. Patriot missiles are losing to cheaper drones. And Visa is facing a challenger that moves $46 trillion without a central HQ. | The giants aren't dying, but they are blinking—and in this market, that's all the signal you need. |
| |
| | |
|  | | | Stansberry Research | |
|
|
|
|
|
| | Which "Overtake" surprises you the most? | | (Thank you for reading, thinking, and staying curious through all of it.) | — Claire |
|
| | |
|
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar