Folks, gold has been on an absolute tear this year... Prices are up more than 60% so far in 2025. That blows the S&P 500 Index's roughly 17% gain this year out of the water.
Gold's Growth Isn't Out of Fuel Yet
By Vic Lederman, publisher, Chaikin Analytics
Folks, gold has been on an absolute tear this year...
Prices are up more than 60% so far in 2025. That blows the S&P 500 Index's roughly 17% gain this year out of the water.
Worries over inflation and economic policies have helped send gold prices soaring. However, you might recall a big pullback recently...
In mid-October, gold prices hit at all-time. But then, they fell more than 9% in less than two weeks.
In the chart below, you can see gold's movement this year...
In the chart, you'll also notice that gently sloping dashed line. That's the 50-day moving average for the price of gold.
It's clear that gold continually flew above that average in 2025. But in October, you'll see that prices got far ahead of it.
As I just mentioned, the price of gold then went on to fall by more than 9%.
Of course, you can also see in the chart that gold resumed its growth. That brief period of falling prices wasn't a bad omen, folks...
Gold simply grew too much, too fast.
The precious metal simply needed a breather. So when prices dipped, investors kept buying more.
And looking ahead, gold prices still have more room to run. Let me explain...
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Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows this trend well. Take a look at the chart below...
This shows the St. Louis Fed's "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" for the U.S. As the name implies, it's a measure of public uncertainty over the future direction of America's economic policies.
It's true that this index has fallen below the high in April amid the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. However, you can see that it remains elevated. Heck, the index levels today are higher than they were in 2008 during the financial crisis.
Folks, this uncertainty is supporting gold's growth. Investors across the board are still worried about the future of their investments.
This drives them closer to "safe haven" assets like gold.
And something is looming that could send the price of gold even higher...
An Interest-Rate Cut May Signal Another Spike for Gold Prices
Later this week, the Fed will announce whether it will cut interest rates again.
Based on CME Group's FedWatch tool, the vast majority of traders are expecting a cut. As of earlier this morning, the tool pointed to a roughly 90% chance of a cut at this week's Fed meeting.
A lower target interest rate is meant to encourage spending. And more spending often means a higher rate of inflation.
If the Fed cuts interest rates, that will likely drive demand for gold even higher.
Now, the Power Gauge doesn't track the price of gold itself...
But we can look at its performance through the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). It's the largest physically backed gold exchange-traded fund ("ETF") in the world.
Keep in mind that GLD doesn't earn a Power Gauge rating. But we can still see its "smart money" activity – the buying and selling from Wall Street institutions.
And the smart money has been scooping this asset up for almost the entire year.
As you know, stocks have been volatile recently. And many investors are on edge right now.
Meanwhile, we're poised to see another interest-rate cut from the Fed.
Putting it all together, gold prices look like they have more room to run higher from here.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
P.S. As a reminder, we've started something else "behind the scenes" at Chaikin Analytics...
I've joined social media. And you can find me on Instagram and X (formerly Twitter).
I plan to share regular thoughts and observations on the markets. By doing that, I hope to guide everyday folks like you into making smarter decisions with your money.
It's all free to follow along. So if you're looking for even more financial insights, you can check out Instagram here and X here. I'll see you over there.
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.2%
9
14
7
S&P 500
+0.19%
115
232
151
Nasdaq
+0.41%
25
45
30
Small Caps
-0.42%
608
959
339
Bonds
-0.46%
Communication Services
+1.16%
1
12
7
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks remain somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
+2.44%
Energy
+1.53%
Communication
+1.51%
Consumer Discretionary
+1.27%
Financial
+0.66%
Industrials
+0.58%
Consumer Staples
-1.15%
Materials
-1.36%
Real Estate
-1.63%
Health Care
-2.78%
Utilities
-4.44%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Innovative Technology Services
15
62
16
Over the past 6 months, the Innovative Technology subsector (XITK) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -18.03%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #16 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 1 slot over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
ALKT
Alkami Technology, I
PANW
Palo Alto Networks,
DUOL
Duolingo, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
ULTA
+12.65%
MRNA
+8.67%
SNDK
+7.11%
WBD
+6.28%
LUV
+5.7%
Losers
PSKY
-9.78%
WRB
-5.86%
VST
-5.05%
NRG
-3.76%
HOOD
-3.74%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
VSCO Victoria's Secret & Co.
Q0
$-0.27
Beat by $0.32
* * * *
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