Artificial intelligence ("AI") is a generational opportunity... By that, I mean it's a disruptive technology. It will boost almost every part of the economy. And one day, our grandchildren will reflect on what's happening in real time right now.
Artificial intelligence ("AI") is a generational opportunity...
By that, I mean it's a disruptive technology. It will boost almost every part of the economy. And one day, our grandchildren will reflect on what's happening in real time right now.
It's a lot like Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, for example...
The first iPhone launched in June 2007. That was less than two decades ago. And yet, almost everyone walks around with a smartphone in their pocket these days.
The iPhone isn't the only tech to disrupt our daily lives, of course...
Major tech waves often follow a specific pattern of adoption. And right now, AI is about where the PC was in 1985...
Back then, a lot of people believed in the potential of PCs. But the machines simply weren't practical yet.
I worked as a technology analyst at the time. I vividly remember PCs sitting idle on many senior managers' desks – for years, in some cases.
Heck, even IBM's (IBM) CEO, John Akers, looked at an early model of the PC as just a toy. He didn't believe it could ever become a critical part of our everyday lives.
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It Pays to Catch Tech Cycles at the Right Time
The PC changed our lives long before we all carried smartphones in our pockets. It made things easier across all sorts of industries. And it combined with another disruptive force...
In the early 1990s, a lot of companies started shifting their focus to the Internet. They saw the technology's potential. So they invested time and money into it.
The Internet still wasn't practical at first. So the payoff didn't happen right away.
But here's the thing...
Investors who catch tech cycles at the right time can make massive returns.
After all, innovation always marches on. And the dot-com boom is proof. For example, look at what happened with Internet-related stocks – both over the short and long term...
According to FactSet data, the S&P Composite 1500 Internet Services & Infrastructure Subindustry Index produced a cumulative return of nearly 4,000% from 1995 to 2000. That performance crushed the benchmark S&P 500 Index's cumulative return in that span.
When we zoom out, the outperformance is even more impressive...
Even with the dot-com bust from 2000 to 2002, the S&P Composite 1500 Internet Services & Infrastructure Subindustry Index has produced a cumulative return of around 16,000% since 1995. That's more than 4 times the S&P 500's cumulative return over that period...
As you can see, buying into the broad-market indexes isn't always the right move. If you only do that, you'll often miss the biggest gains.
Sure, in a broad-market index, you'll get some exposure to the winners. But you'll also get exposure to companies that the innovation displaces or that decline for other reasons.
Not every Internet-related stock became a big winner. We've all heard of dot-com busts like Pets.com, eToys.com, and Webvan.
Here's where the hard part comes in...
The trick to successfully investing in disruptive technology is twofold. You need to find the big winners and avoid the big losers.
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Good investing,
Joe Austin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+1.19%
7
15
8
S&P 500
+1.1%
113
261
125
Nasdaq
+1.53%
25
59
17
Small Caps
+1.27%
524
990
372
Bonds
+0.73%
Information Technology
+1.8%
28
38
3
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks have become somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Financial
+2.67%
Consumer Discretionary
+2.5%
Information Technology
+2.45%
Industrials
+1.76%
Communication
+1.75%
Utilities
+1.54%
Real Estate
+1.2%
Consumer Staples
+0.99%
Materials
+0.46%
Health Care
+0.23%
Energy
-4.23%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Capital Markets Services
20
34
9
Over the past 6 months, the Capital Markets subsector (KCE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -0.02%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #10 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 2 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
DHIL
Diamond Hill Investm
IBKR
Interactive Brokers
FHI
Federated Hermes, In
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
COIN
+12.1%
ENPH
+11.05%
DXCM
+9.68%
UBER
+7.52%
CCL
+6.91%
Losers
AZO
-3.56%
OXY
-3.34%
EBAY
-3.27%
NOC
-3.14%
XOM
-3.04%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
No significant Earnings Surprises in the Russell 3000.
* * * *
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