| Swan Dive — June 26, 2025 A Tale of Two Economies Addison Wiggin It’s becoming harder to ignore: two economies now coexist side-by-side—one dominated by boardrooms, buyouts, and billion-dollar bets; the other defined by budget squeezes, ballot box revolts, and breakaway populism.
Along with our crumpets this morning, we see headlines about money fleeing, fleecing, merging, tokenizing … and stockpiling weapons. While political upstarts like Mamdani gain ground through social media, the debt-bedraggled middle-class clings to the center.
“When the money goes bad,” our friend Bill Bonner famously notes, “the center can’t hold.”
It’s a fine sight to behold.
Stocks wobbled yesterday, and not in a charming “up-and-down” kind of way—more like a dinner guest trying not to pass out mid-toast. Investors were left squinting at the fog of economic updates and Middle East uncertainty, trying to figure out whether we’re closer to recovery or ruin.
But amid all the noise, one ticker keeps shouting above the rest: Nvidia.
The chip giant closed at another all-time high, extending its victory lap as the unofficial bookie of the AI boom.
Every time someone says “LLM” or “neural net” on CNBC, a hedge fund buys another truckload of shares. The company’s riding a wave of future-facing optimism so strong that it’s starting to feel like the next Apple—or the next Cisco, depending on your level of trauma from 2000. 🛢️ Shell Denies a Megadeal That Might Be Happening Anyway Shell is in the headlines after the Wall Street Journal reported that it’s in early-stage talks to buy BP—a deal that would dwarf anything since Exxon and Mobil tied the knot in ’99. Shell denied the story outright, calling it “market speculation,” while CNBC hedged, saying that a full acquisition of BP is unlikely… but maybe a partial one isn’t.
Either way, markets reacted the way markets do when big oil names start circling one another: BP’s shares ticked up, Shell’s dropped, and someone, somewhere, is updating a PowerPoint that begins with “This Is Not a Merger.” 🪖 Trump’s NATO Pressure Pays Off—For Now NATO allies just agreed to boost defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, a landmark shift that would have made Cold War generals faint with joy. Trump, who has long used the threat of U.S. withdrawal as a budget negotiation tactic, is taking a victory lap.
But don’t expect stability. The alliance is still on edge, especially as Trump prepares to meet with Iranian officials next week amid a ceasefire that appears to be held together by diplomatic duct tape and crossed fingers.
That, and we’re not sure the rest of the EU is willing to call Trump “daddy” as NATO Secretary General awkwardly did during a press conference. ⛽ Oil Is Stable—for Now—but Keep an Eye on the Strait Despite the U.S. strikes in Iran over the weekend, and continued taunts by Israel, gas prices are not surging. In fact, the average price per gallon sits at $3.21—down 23 cents from last year. That’s thanks to America’s post-shale oil glut and a Persian Gulf less eager to play the oil embargo theater.
We’ll still keep an eye on The Strait of Hormuz—the world’s favorite bottleneck—still funnels 20% of global oil supply. A closure or mining of the channel could send markets into a mild paroxysm. So far, tanker traffic has actually increased, but the margin for error is razor-thin. Even though most of Iran’s oil goes to China, you’ll still feel a Strait closure at the pump.
 By as soon as August 8…
Elon could roll out what one ex-Wall Street insider is calling “Project Infinity.”
An AI project that Elon himself says “Will be the biggest project of any kind.”
Not only could it be the biggest, but it could also create the most wealth of any project ever…
So much that Morgan Stanley says it could be worth $30 trillion.
Click here to discover a "backdoor" way for everyday Americans to profit from this "Project."
🗳️ Does Mamdani’s Win Set a National Tone? Before we dive into Britain’s millionaire exodus, a question: does Zohran Mamdani’s upset victory in New York’s Democratic mayoral primary mean trouble for establishment Democrats across the map?
According to Axios, nearly 20 incumbent House Democrats are already facing primary challengers, and one progressive predicts 30% of the caucus will be under siege. “People have anxiety,” the lawmaker told reporters. “Their hair is on fire.”  To understand Zohran, Peter Thiel suggested this to a group chat that includes among others, Mark Zuckerberg, back in January. Democratic strategist James Carville was blunt: “It’s a national election, not just a New York City election. Everybody is going to be asked, do they support him?” Even The New York Times took the win seriously, noting Mamdani’s progressive platform and stark divergence from mainstream Democratic policy on Israel. His firm pro-Palestinian stance is drawing notice, and not all of it friendly.
That said, there’s nuance to the upset. Mamdani’s opponent was none other than scandal-scarred former Governor Andrew Cuomo—a walking reminder of every accusation from 2021. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) chalked up Mamdani’s win to Cuomo’s toxicity: “It was an indictment of Cuomo… and an indication that people in New York want change.”
More tellingly, Mamdani underperformed among Black voters—a historic Democratic stronghold. If that trend continues, it signals a much deeper realignment than just a populist spasm. 🚚 Millionaire Flight: The British Wexit Has Begun For one reaction to New York’s leftward tilt… ask Londoners.
The UK is about to lose 16,500 millionaires this year—a record outflow driven by tightened tax rules, political uncertainty, and what some might call “the creeping scent of class war.”
Henley & Partners, the wealth migration firm, says it’s the biggest millionaire migration on record, more than China or India. Many of those leaving the UK were foreign-born and are simply reversing course. Others are headed for the U.S. or the UAE, where tax authorities tend to greet capital with a smile and a fruit basket.
British watchdogs say the panic is overblown. But history shows you don’t need a full-blown exodus to rattle a system. Just enough to spook those still holding the bag. We recall stories of Mick Jagger of the Rolling Stones famously voting with his feet, leaving London (for New York!) in 1971 during the socialist tax regime in the UK of Edward Heath. 🛰️ SpaceX on the Blockchain? Sure, Why Not. Investment platform Republic is now selling digital tokens that mirror the value of SpaceX stock. You don’t actually get a stake in Elon’s rocket company. You get a crypto-based IOU that promises a payday if the company IPOs or gets bought.
It’s a clever use of a 2012 loophole in the JOBS Act that lets private firms issue up to $5 million a year in securities to retail investors. Whether regulators agree is still an open question. But if there’s anything 2025 loves, it’s mixing speculative assets with wishful thinking and calling it “democratizing finance.” 🎬 California to Spend $750 Million on Hollywood Subsidies Governor Gavin Newsom's $750 million annual gift to Hollywood—the Film & TV Tax Credit Program—is cruising toward final approval. The money is meant to stop film production from fleeing to places like Georgia or, God forbid, Canada.
This as California faces a $12 billion budget hole. Somehow there's always room in the budget for superheroes, dystopias, and prestige dramas about emotionally unavailable cowboys. 📰 Paywall Purgatory: Americans Still Don’t Like Paying for News Here’s a story all too close to our hearts: according to Pew, when Americans hit a paywall online:
53% look for the info somewhere else
32% just give up
11% try to sneak in
2% do something else (we’re guessing “swear at the screen”)
1% actually pay
Most say it’s not about price—there’s just too much free content out there.
Ahem.
If you’re reading this and you’ve chosen to support Grey Swan by becoming a paying member, congratulations! You’re part of the most exclusive subscription model in media—financial intelligence for the willingly informed. 💡 What’s a Gentleman to Do? And that’s really the point of all this…
If you’re trying to manage your nest egg in this whirlwind, here’s the good news: opportunity often emerges from the dislocations. Defense contractors are about to enjoy a 5%-of-GDP tailwind across 30 countries. Energy remains stable now, but any Strait of Hormuz disruption would send prices—and related equities—soaring.
Companies with strong cash flows and low tariff exposure—telecom, utilities, even some tech—are still solid plays in a stagflation-tinged environment. Meanwhile, platforms offering fractional access to private equity are worth watching, but approach tokenized hype (like SpaceX IOUs) with the same caution you’d reserve for 19th-century railroad bonds being sold from a street corner.
Cash remains underrated, if under attack.
In our saner moments, we recognize healthy cash position allows flexibility when volatility strikes. And in the kind of dual-speed world we’re living in—where one economy dances in speculation and the other seethes—liquidity, clarity, and a sharp skepticism will beat FOMO every time. 🔮 Forecast: Trouble on the Populist Front From Nvidia’s AI surge to NATO’s defense binge, from democratized crypto stocks to democratic socialist victories, we’re watching two economies evolve side by side—one speculative and jet-powered, the other bruised and bargaining.
When Mamdani wins New York and millionaires flee London, it’s not just coincidence—it’s the sound of the global populist wave cresting again. This time, it might hit both coasts at once.
Now, layer on the passage of the GENIUS Act, which sailed through the Senate this week. Coinbase’s co-founder called it a “once in a lifetime platform shift” in the monetary system. The Act paves the way for deregulated and decentralized money issued by private parties—Walmart, Amazon, your local megacorp with a logo and a loyalty app.
Scott Bessent, former Soros advisor, sees promise. He argues a robust stablecoin ecosystem could actually increase global demand for U.S. dollars and short-term Treasury debt. In theory, that demand could backstop the dollar while allowing Congress to push out fiscal day-of-reckoning deadlines like a student with a term paper and a Wi-Fi excuse.
To which we offer… some hesitation. If stablecoins are still pegged to fiat currencies—or worse, directly collateralized by U.S. debt—how does that solve anything? It’s like putting a turbocharger on a leaking engine. You go faster… but where, exactly?
That’s the skeptic in me. And it’s the question we’ll be digging into today on Grey Swan Live! with Ian King at 11am EST. Hope you’ll join us.
~ Addison 📺 p.s. Grey Swan Live! with Ian King at 11am EST today. We’ll break down the GENIUS Act and its implications for AI, capital markets, and the coming realignment.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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