| Ripple Effect — May 16, 2025
Make no mistake: The stock market peaked in February, following the news that China had released a new AI program.
DeepSeek isn’t just a ChatGPT clone. According to China, it was able to train the AI with substantially fewer resources.
That’s a huge breakthrough. And a sign of a global “Cold War” in AI development.
That potential escalation still looks some time off. For now, investors love AI because it’s a pure growth story, by any metric.
For instance, ChatGPT’s total users now exceed those of Wikipedia:  I remember when Wikipedia first launched. Several of my college professors said it shouldn’t be used as it wasn’t reliable. I also remember going on Wikipedia, ignoring the article, and going straight to the footnotes that could be used and were reliable.
Today, AI models are best used similarly: to get the creative juices flowing and to run through some ideas, not do all the work and turn down the human capacity to think.
Be mindful, though. As the saying goes, today is the worst AI will ever be.
Times and technology change, and ChatGPT's rise shows that its fast growth comes at the cost of disrupting other industries – and that there’s more growth ahead.
-Andrew P.S. As our resident AI expert and transhumanist Zoltan Istvan noted for paid-up Grey Swan Investment Fraternity members in our Grey Swan Live! session yesterday, the rapid rise of AI could mean that most humans will be out of a job within just a few years. Unlike prior periods of history, there won’t be as many new jobs replacing the old ones, and that it may be time to prepare for that possibility.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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