sport football: 🚨 Volatility’s Back — And the Market Can’t See the Punch Coming

Jumat, 23 Mei 2025

🚨 Volatility’s Back — And the Market Can’t See the Punch Coming

Don Kaufman here.

You've heard me warning about this for weeks. Risks piling up. Volatility creeping in. The market is getting manic.

Well, here we are — and now it's screaming that it can't handicap a damn thing.

We just cracked the lower edge of the expected move by 1.5 standard deviations, the S&P can't stay within its own risk envelope, and retail traders still think some magic Fibonacci level is going to save them.

Spoiler alert: it won't.

You want to know what matters right now?

Volatility. Hedging activity. Risk premiums. Bond market signals.

And let me be very clear — what we're seeing across these metrics is not normal.

Not even close.

Here's what I break down in this week's market update:

🔥 Five Red Flags You Can't Afford to Ignore:

Why the VVIX crossing 110 wasn't just a blip — and why it means the next 2-3 weeks could be a minefield for unhedged traders
The tech trap: Why the "strength" in names like Google and Tesla this week isn't bullish at all — and could be setting up a monster downside catch-up
How volatility futures just flattened out — and why that signals the same risk 26 days out as it does 152. That's not healthy, folks.
The bond market's silent scream: What the 10-year breaking 4.5% really means for the S&P — and why the phrase "panic at the disco" isn't hyperbole
$127 expected move… in just 4 days?! What the options market is pricing in next week — and why Tuesday alone could deliver a $63 explosion

I'm telling you right now: if you're not using in-out spreads or some kind of defined risk strategy in this environment, you're walking into traffic blindfolded.

This isn't about being bearish. It's about being prepared.

And in this week's full video, I lay out:

The specific volatility signals I'm watching (including one that just triggered for the third time in six months)
What Nvidia's earnings could do to tech — even if they beat
Why retail traders are about to get blindsided by bond-driven sell pressure if they're not paying attention

🚨 Don't go into next week flying blind. You've got a four-day week with five days' worth of risk baked in. And the merry-go-round of risks? It's spinning again.

👉 Click here to watch the full market breakdown now

We're not in Kansas anymore, people.

Stay sharp. Stay hedged.

To your success,
Don Kaufman