| Swan Dive — May 23, 2025 The Price of Mangoes Addison Wiggin Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick offered a surprisingly lucid image this week amid the chaos. America, he said, will “never grow its own mangoes.”
Trade must go on. You can slap a tariff on a mango, but it won’t make it grow in Ohio. It’ll just make your smoothie more expensive.
That’s not just tropical produce wisdom — it’s economic realism.
You can’t tariff your way out of structural dependency. You can’t print your way to prosperity. And you can’t post your way to a coherent economic strategy. The mango still has to be picked, boxed, shipped, and bought. Trade, unlike politics, demands results.
Bloomberg’s John Authers recalled John Lanchester’s mango parable this morning: The farmer sells his future crop for a buck a crate, then the speculators, brokers, and short sellers bid and bet the price up to $1.30 and back down to 90 cents before the fruit is even ripe.
The mango never changed.
But the bets around it did.
The farmer’s still farming.
Someone’s still eating the mango.
But the noise — the frantic price action — often creates more confusion than value. And if you’re the kind of man trying to secure his future in a system increasingly run on rumors and algorithms, it’s hard to tell where the real signals are anymore.
Let’s give it a shot anyway… 💸 Trump’s Tax Blitz Clears the House by a Hair On Thursday, by just one vote, the House passed President Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar tax overhaul. The plan, a throwback to the “deficits-don’t-matter” days of the early 2000s, extends tax cuts while gutting social programs and adding trillions more to our $37 trillion debt pile.
To the gentleman investor, here’s what matters: the market has already priced in the debt explosion. It’s showing up not in dramatic headlines, but in the slow, grinding rise in long-term interest rates, especially on the 30-year Treasury.
This isn’t politics. It’s math. 📈 The Bond Market's Verdict: You’ll Pay More for Risk That 5.15% yield on 30-year Treasurys? That’s the world telling Washington it’s done funding its fantasy for free.  If you’re planning for retirement, thinking about your children’s education, or just trying to ensure your wealth outpaces inflation — this matters. Bonds were once the ballast in the portfolio. Now they’re the canary. And they’re wheezing.
Add in Moody’s downgrade and the 7% drop in the U.S. dollar year-to-date, and you start to get a picture: global investors are no longer willing to accept vague promises. They want real returns — or they’ll go elsewhere.
Many have 5-star ratings.
Most are "buys" per Wall Street.
But they're dead companies.
Click here to see the full list.
🇪🇺 Trump Declares EU Trade Talks “Going Nowhere,” Threatens 50% Tariff Friday morning, Trump torched weeks of carefully choreographed trade diplomacy with the European Union by declaring negotiations were “going nowhere.” Within minutes, he posted a new plan: a 50% tariff on all EU goods, effective June 1.
Markets reacted with immediate alarm. France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX dropped nearly 3%, the Stoxx 600 fell 2%, and U.K. stocks, though technically out of the EU, were caught in the collateral and fell over 1%. U.S. futures plunged, with the Dow down 500 points and the S&P falling 1.5%.
Only days earlier, the EU had floated a compromise plan to gradually reduce tariffs on industrial and consumer goods, and White House officials had called the talks “constructive.” That narrative has now been shredded.
The gentleman investor would do well to see this for what it is: not a negotiating tactic, but a reassertion of unpredictability as policy.
Trade doesn’t function on bravado. It runs on rules. And if those rules are subject to sudden whims, capital will begin to exit—not just markets, but supply chains and investment plans altogether. 📱 Apple in the Crosshairs: Produce in America or Pay 25% Trump didn’t stop at Europe. In the same string of Friday morning posts, he took direct aim at Apple, threatening a 25% tariff on all imported iPhones unless the company moves production to the U.S.
Apple hasn’t commented publicly, having already made a massive shift toward production in India.  But the market understood the signal. Tech shares fell broadly at the open. Analysts quickly noted that such a tariff could add $200 to the retail price of an iPhone, which is already under pressure from rising input costs and flatlining consumer demand in China and Europe.
The message to investors? The tech supply chain is no longer sacred.
For decades, Apple has been the poster child of global manufacturing efficiency.
If it’s being asked to unravel that overnight for the sake of industrial policy theater, then no multinational is immune. For the long-term investor, this raises uncomfortable questions: how do you value a company whose entire operating model is subject to sudden, state-imposed price shocks? 🧾 The Trouble With Tweets-as-Tariffs Until Friday, markets had largely tuned out Trump’s trade barbs, focusing more intently on the red flags waving in the bond market as we ourselves did yesterday on Grey Swan Live! (A video replay is now available for members who missed our live show.)
But with today’s Europe and Apple headliners, that assumption is now in question, too. If tariffs can be triggered on a Friday morning post, what comes next?
Supply chains aren’t built on tweets. And pricing in presidential mood swings is risky… but profitable if you’ve got the stomach for it. 🏦 Fannie & Freddie: The Mortgage Market’s Nostalgic Casino Trump also floated a renewed push to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a zombie idea from his first term. The market went wild: Fannie jumped 51%, Freddie climbed 42%. Investors cheered. Mortgage professionals flinched.
You may not own shares directly, but you almost certainly rely on the mortgage market being boring, predictable, and liquid. Shaking the foundation of that system introduces uncertainty just when rate volatility is already punishing borrowers and lenders alike. Grey Swan thought for Friday: Learn to Tell the Mango from the Mirage “Ironically,” Andrew commented, “it's mango season in Florida, where anyone with even a single tree has about 1,000 of them to give away.”
So Mr. Lutnick’s comment is not entirely true.
Still, the allegory holds for most of the country.
In a world where the financial system spins frantically around debt, tariffs, and tweetstorms, the greatest skill a thoughtful investor can develop is the ability to tell the mango from the mirage.
So what’s real?
Earnings season, for one, delivered something solid. No, the numbers weren’t spectacular. But companies showed they’re still making things, solving problems, and generating cash. Amid the headline noise, it’s a quiet reassurance that real value still exists — and that owning a piece of it still matters.
That’s the lesson. When every institution is being tested—currency, credit, credibility—the smartest thing you can do is focus on what’s productive, durable, and real. The mango, not the bets.
You don’t need to predict everything. You just need to see clearly — and plant accordingly.
~ Addison P.S. Yesterday on Grey Swan Live! we dove deep into the global bond market. Andrew did an excellent job working out what red flags waving in the Japanese and U.S. bond markets mean to the Grey Swan model portfolio.
The session turned out to be a masterclass in understanding how macro global trends influence the bond and stock markets and what we can expect as we move beyond the controlled demolition phase of the Trump Reset. If you missed it, and you’re a paid-up member, you can catch the replay here.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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