(New Video)
| | | Don Kaufman here. | While everyone's arguing about support levels and Fibonacci retracements, the market is literally SCREAMING that it has no idea what's going on. | I'm talking about something most retail traders completely ignore – and it's flashing red warning signals right now. | The S&P 500 – the mother of all products with nearly 12 million contracts trading daily – can't even handicap its own forward risk anymore. We're seeing massive breaches of expected moves week after week, and that tells me one thing: | This marketplace has become completely unruly. | And when markets can't figure themselves out? That's when the professional money starts rushing in to buy hedges. | That's when volatility indicators I've been tracking for years start flashing warnings. That's when the merry-go-round of risks comes back into fashion. | Look, I've been warning about this stuff week in and week out. The tariff risks, the bond market chaos, the fact that we're sitting on more debt than ever while interest rates are spiking to levels we haven't seen since before the financial crisis. | But here's what happened this week that has me really concerned... | • Why the VVIX cracking above a critical 110 level means you better be "on your game" for the next 2-3 weeks – even if markets rally back on Tuesday | • The shocking reason tech stocks' "strength" this week is actually a massive red flag that leaves the market extraordinarily vulnerable to the downside | • Why volatility futures are now completely flattened out – and what this "ambiguous area" really means for risk in the coming weeks | • The one bond market warning that could trigger "panic at the disco" if the 10-year keeps climbing (spoiler: it already cracked the level I predicted last weekend) | • How next week's expected move exploded to $127 for just FOUR trading days – and why Tuesday alone is pricing in a $63 move | The bottom line? | We went from "cancel the recession, everything's fine" to smelling fear in the air in just two trading sessions. | I'm not trying to get everybody all bearish with no place to go. But I am telling you that if you're bullish right now and you're not using spreads to hedge your positions, you're asking for trouble. | The professional side is already hedging. The volatility indicators are flashing warnings. And the bond market is sending dire signals about spending that nobody in Washington wants to hear. | This is exactly why I keep saying: use spreads, reduce risk, get hedged. | Because when this merry-go-round of risks really gets spinning again – and it will – you don't want to be caught naked in this market. | In my latest presentation, I break down exactly what these volatility warnings mean, which specific levels I'm watching in bonds that could trigger a real selloff, and why even a potential Nvidia earnings beat next week might not save tech if this thing really gets rolling. | Watch the full market breakdown here | Don't spend your Memorial Day weekend wondering what levels matter (hint: they don't right now). Spend it understanding why the market is screaming that it can't figure out what's going on – and how to position yourself accordingly. | The next two to three weeks are going to be critical. Make sure you're prepared. | Get the complete volatility warning here | To your success, | Don Kaufman | | | |
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