After rocketing to record highs, gold seemed to have finally lost its momentum these past few weeks.
To the casual observer, anyway.
Some of us (like Jason Williams) knew better.
After all, gold’s rise to $3,500 was meteoric. A pullback was well justified. But a minor correction was never going to hold water against an unstoppable trend.
And this week, gold came roaring back as broader economic news woke everyone back up to the bull case that’s been driving gold higher for pretty much the past decade.
The big headline was Moody’s downgraded America’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.
This kind of development would have been shocking 20 years ago, but in this day and age it’s rather expected. In fact, Moody’s was the last holdout among major credit agencies, as S&P and Fitch downgraded U.S. debt in 2011 and 2023, respectively.
The problem isn’t so much that the U.S. government can’t pay its bills. It’s the trajectory — the path we’re on — and a stubborn refusal to take our debt burden seriously.
And that includes President Trump.
Sure, he talks a big gain on deficit reduction. He’s promised a massive revenue boon from tariffs, empowered Elon Musk to drastically reduce the government workforce, and taken steps to dismantle entire agencies like the Department of Education.
But the numbers don’t lie.
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Trump added roughly $8 trillion to the national debt during his first term. And he’s poised to pile on even more debt in his second.
Already, Trump has proposed to not only extend his 2017 tax cuts, but expand them to exempt tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime wages from the federal income tax.
On Sunday, House Republicans moved forward with a budget framework that would deliver $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. Even broad cuts Republicans also have planned won’t compensate for that loss in revenue.
It will only add to a deficit that grew by $1.3 trillion from October 2024 through March of this year. That’s the second highest six-month deficit on record, according to Treasury Department data.
Despite Musk literally brandishing a chainsaw and bragging about all the good he’s doing rooting out waste, government spending rose by $139 billion in the first three months of 2025 compared with the same period last year. Borrowing over that period was $41 billion higher.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs have done more harm than good. They’ve been unevenly applied, causing stocks to rise and fall each time they’re announced and then subsequently paused.
They’ve resulted in retaliatory measures from America’s biggest trade partners, increased costs for consumers, and have manufacturers and retailers struggling to keep up.
Along with Trump’s threats to annex Canada as the 51st state, invade Greenland, and abandon Europe to the designs of Vladimir Putin, they’ve also undermined America’s credibility and increased animosity toward U.S. assets.
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That last one is another part of the problem. Foreign entities are less and less willing to buy U.S. debt (i.e., Treasuries). The reduction in dollar reserve assets held by foreign official institutions was already enough to drive yields higher.
But the Moody’s rating cut added even more fuel to the fire, driving the yield on 30-year bonds above 5%. And 10-year Treasury yields now top 4.5%.
This, along with the steep correction stocks suffered in April has come to be known as the “Sell America” trade.
And if investors, traders, wealth management firms, and central banks are selling America, what are they buying?
Gold.
Gold. Gold. Gold.
That’s why its price will continue to press higher over the medium and long term. And any short-term correction should be seen as just that — a temporary blip and buying opportunity.
So what’s the best way to profit from the gold bull?
Well, it’s probably not what you think.
Sure, you can never go wrong holding the physical metal in the form of bullion or coins. And ETFs are always an option.
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