Folks, the broad market S&P 500 Index is only about 4% away from making a new all-time high... And there are lots of "bullish" opportunities now. Power Gauge subscribers have seen the change happen in real time.
Beware This Underperforming Sector Right Now
By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics
Folks, the broad market S&P 500 Index is only about 5% away from making a new all-time high...
And there are lots of "bullish" opportunities now. Power Gauge subscribers have seen the change happen in real time.
Today, six of the 11 top-level market sectors earn a "bullish" or better rating. And only four earn a "bearish" rating.
But one sector in particular has been struggling recently...
Over the past three months, it has tumbled about 10%. And based on the exchange-traded fund ("ETF") that the Power Gauge uses to measure this sector, nearly all of the holdings are in "bearish" or "neutral" territory.
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Energy Stocks Are Struggling
If you've been paying close attention to the markets recently, you might have guessed that I'm talking about the energy sector.
It all starts with the defined downtrend of oil prices.
You see, oil prices peaked in 2022 at nearly $124 per barrel. But today, a barrel of oil is trading for about $60.
Put simply, this is a massive drag on the industry. And we're seeing that play out in real time.
Oil and gas equipment provider Baker Hughes (BKR) measures "rig counts." These are effectively active oil-production sites.
It might surprise you to know that these numbers fluctuate a fair bit. After all, folks tend to think of the oil industry as a giant profit-generating machine.
But the reality is more complicated. Some rigs cost more to operate. And all of them have their breakeven points.
Sometimes, it's better to just shut a rig down rather than operate it. Or it might mean that building new rigs just isn't worth it at the current price of a barrel of oil.
That's exactly what we're seeing today...
U.S. rig counts peaked in December 2022 at 784. Today, that number stands at 576. That's a nearly 27% decline.
Less rigs mean less money for just about everyone in the business. So it's no wonder why the energy sector is suffering in the Power Gauge...
In our system, we measure this top-level market sector with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE). This ETF holds industry giants like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron Corporation (CVX).
Take a look at XLE on the chart below...
As you can see, XLE has been in "neutral" or "bearish" territory for most of the past year. Importantly, when you look at the relative strength panel below the chart, you'll see that it has also underperformed the S&P 500 for much of the same span.
As XLE moved higher in March, it did turn "bullish" in the Power Gauge for a few weeks. And it showed some outperformance against the broad market. But by now, that has changed...
Remember, the broad market isn't far from a new high. However, the energy sector isn't recovering.
Today, 12 stocks in XLE earn a "bearish" or "very bearish" rating. Another 10 are in "neutral" territory. And only one stock earns a "bullish" or better grade.
Now, we all know that oil prices – and the energy sector in particular – will turn around eventually. But right now, the Power Gauge is flashing caution.
Folks, there are lots of new opportunities in this market. But now is the time to be buying into strength.
So when it comes to putting new money to work, I'll follow the Power Gauge's lead on energy stocks.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-1.93%
8
15
7
S&P 500
-1.69%
96
266
137
Nasdaq
-1.39%
26
58
16
Small Caps
-2.81%
370
1022
493
Bonds
-1.71%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks have turned somewhat Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Consumer Staples
+2.68%
Utilities
+2.47%
Health Care
+2.18%
Materials
+0.77%
Industrials
+0.51%
Communication
+0.18%
Real Estate
+0.07%
Financial
-1.28%
Consumer Discretionary
-2.06%
Information Technology
-2.07%
Energy
-3.75%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Retail Services
13
45
18
Over the past 6 months, the Retail subsector (XRT) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -4.16%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #14 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 4 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AAP
Advance Auto Parts,
ASO
Academy Sports and O
VVV
Valvoline Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
GOOG
+2.87%
GOOGL
+2.79%
CF
+1.63%
CME
+1.39%
CBOE
+0.96%
Losers
FICO
-15.74%
AES
-9.88%
MRNA
-7.82%
PSX
-7.54%
PANW
-6.8%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
TGT Target Corporation
Q1
$1.30
Missed by $-0.35
SNOW Snowflake Inc.
Q1
$0.24
Beat by $0.03
ZM Zoom Communications Inc.
Q1
$1.43
Beat by $0.12
MDT Medtronic plc
Q4
$1.62
Beat by $0.04
LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc.
Q1
$2.92
Beat by $0.04
* * * *
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Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.
Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
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