| Ripple Effect — May 21, 2025
Five years ago, during the pandemic, the bond market hit record-low yields. At one point, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond paid a scant 0.318% yield.
Today’s 10-year bond buyers? 4.51%.
For $10,000, that’s a more than ten-fold difference between getting paid $31.80 in annual interest versus $451.
Bonds have been a poor asset, especially longer-dated ones. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT, is down over 50% since 2020.
Let’s contrast that return with bitcoin.
Over the past five years, whether interest rates have been low or high, whether central banks have been flooding the system or not – bitcoin has soared over 1,100%.  This week, soon-to-retire JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon graciously announced that the bank would allow its customers to buy crypto.
That’s after a 1,100% move. And after bonds, which the bank is more than happy to deal in, have been cut in half.
When it comes to crypto, asking a bank about it is like asking a taxi driver what they think of Uber.
There’s a monetary regime change underway. And bitcoin could allow investors to come out ahead – whatever happens – and whoever ends up on top.
~ Addison P.S. Gold also has a role to play as the current global monetary system breaks down. We still see the strong possibility for gold prices to soar.
Tomorrow, Thursday, May 22, 2025, on Grey Swan Live! At 11 a.m. ET, we’ll join our paid-up members and go beneath the headlines and see how war budgets, fractured consumer confidence, rising global yields and the banking system’s slow leak are impacting the Grey Swan model portfolio.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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