| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Wednesday April 2, 2025 | Swan Dive — April 2, 2025
Dear Reader,
We first started watching the revolt of the masses in Argentina with Javier Milei. Our man Joel Bowman reported live from Buenos Aires while Milei waved a chainsaw like a prophet in a junkyard of failed central planning.
Now, the anti-woke, anti-bureaucratic demolition has crossed hemispheres. Trump's back in office, and this time, the sledgehammer's aimed at the post-WWII trade system itself.
The "controlled demolition" of American economic orthodoxy is accelerating — and today's Rose Garden speech, conveniently timed after the stock market closes, may mark the moment it all goes live.
We know the 25% auto tariffs will hit as soon as the ink is dry. But if Trump sticks to his own script, expect more fireworks: new reciprocal tariffs on goods from countries that slap U.S. exports with higher taxes, fast-tracked incentives for onshoring manufacturing, and a carefully choreographed "I told you so" aimed at decades of trade deficits.
"I couldn't care less if they raise prices because people are going to start buying American-made cars," Trump asserted on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday in response to fears of price increases on cars.
"We may have, short term, a little pain," said the president when he imposed the 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. "People understand that. But long term, virtually every country in the world has ripped off the United States," said Trump.
Trade deficits are the problem, he asserts.
"Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream," noted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a speech to the Economic Club of New York last month. The emphasis on "not" is ours.
And therein lies the political gambit. 
If Trump follows the pattern, he'll roll out a list of companies making "fresh commitments to U.S. manufacturing" — intended to soften the blow for consumers and give Wall Street something to chew on.
Here's who we expect him to name: Intel – $20B fab investment in Ohio TSMC – Arizona chip manufacturing Tesla – Nevada battery supply chain expansion Ford & GM – New EV capacity and plant upgrades GE Appliances – Louisville expansion U.S. Steel & Nucor – Rust Belt revivals Pfizer & Moderna – Vaccine and pharmaceutical production Amazon (maybe) – Logistics facilities in key electoral zones If that's what we hear, what's more interesting is what we don't: There is no mention of the WTO, IMF, or G7. No coordination. Just America, running the table, one tariff at a time.
Broadly speaking, the S&P 500 is already off 4.6% this year. The Dow is down 1.3%. And the Nasdaq is still reeling, more than 10% in the red. 
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are now actively warning clients that a broadening tariff war will prolong the market slide.
Traders, as ever, are ahead of the press releases — they've started hedging for higher volatility and reduced margins in earnings season. The big question still remains: does Trump sound serious enough to trigger another leg down?
We'll know more tomorrow… and be back with specifics.
🧠 AI: Hype Hangover Hits Hard While tariffs steal the headlines, tech's golden child — AI — is quietly getting kicked in the shins. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 8.3% in Q1, its worst quarter in three years. Nvidia is down 28% since January. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet are all down more than 20%.
"They were priced for perfection," said Boston Partners' Michael Mullaney. "And perfection left the building two weeks ago."
VIX: The Whisper Before the Scream 
The so-called "fear gauge" ended Q1 at 22, up 11% YTD. It's not spiking, but it doesn't have to. Traders are already shifting cash into volatility hedges. Something's up—and everyone can feel it.
🥇 Gold: The Bunker Beckons Gold reached $3,146 in overnight trading and now hovers around $3,128. While stocks fall it's up 18% this year alone. Since November, someone — deep-pocketed, U.S.-based — has quietly bought up 2,000 metric tons (64 million ounces) of bullion. That's nearly a quarter of what the U.S. claims to hold in Fort Knox.
Whoever it is, they're not betting on price — they're betting on systemic risk.
⚖️ Ballots & Benches: Politics as Markets Wisconsin Supreme Court: Liberal Susan Crawford beat Elon-backed Brad Schimel. Nearly $99M was spent. The court stays 4–3 blue. If Elon's warning that the election will decide the "fate of humanity," then we've got our work cut out for us. Florida's Special Elections: Republicans held their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives — barely. Two Trump-endorsed, Musk-supported candidates won in ruby-red Florida districts by much smaller margins than Trump's 2024 victory. The elections were held to replace Mike Walz, now National Security Adviser, and Matt Gaetz, who, briefly nominated to be U.S. Attorney General, stepped down from his seat. Viewed as an early referendum on Trump's handling of the economy, it's safe to say the 2026 midterms just got more interesting. Trump isn't just tweaking trade policy. He's dismantling the scaffolding of the global economy — replacing decades of globalization with a bold (or reckless) bet on controlled domestic resurgence. Supply chains, dollar hegemony, consumer prices — nothing is off-limits. And the impacts on your wealth could be huge.
Will it succeed? There are 579 days until the mid-terms.
Join Us for Grey Swan Live! (for paid members only)
📅 Tomorrow @ 11 A.M. EST If you're a paid-up member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, please join us for a live Zoom call tomorrow at 11 a.m. EST. We'll walk through our model portfolio and asset allocation strategy for this new era : Check your inbox tomorrow morning for the link. Seats are limited. Risk isn't.
The end of cheap stuff isn't the end of the world. Just the end of the world as we have known it (TEOTWAWHKI).
Addison
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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