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The Big Government Shutdown Had Plenty of Fear Priced In
Let me be clear... I don't pretend to see the future. But I am a data guy.
Today's problems may be unprecedented to some degree. Still, America and the markets have been through a lot of political brinksmanship.
Think about it. How many times have we come close to – or actually had – a government shutdown in the past decade?
I bet it's enough that you've lost count. But when one happens, it's a serious event for America.
Despite that, I bet you haven't thought about the 2018 to 2019 shutdown in some time. After all, it seems like a distant memory today.
But it was a darn big deal at the time...
Political brinksmanship came to a head. And on December 22, 2018, the federal government "shut down." Of course, that happened all while politicians blamed each other and tried to control the optics of it.
At the time, Fitch Ratings even said it could consider downgrading America's credit rating.
But looking back at the chart of the S&P 500 Index from that time reveals something interesting...
Again, the shutdown started on December 22, 2018.
Of course, nobody knew how long it would last. And news about the "impending doom" had already filled headlines for weeks before the shutdown started. So it's no wonder that the markets moved lower leading up to it.
But look at what happened as the shutdown dragged on... The market moved higher.
Investors had already priced in most of their fear – even though the shutdown ended up lasting a record 35 days.
And 2019 turned out to be a massive year in the markets. The S&P 500 soared nearly 29%.
Could the broad market fall further from here? Sure. There's a lot of new information coming out of the White House that investors are still trying to price in.
But history tells us that these "market ending" events don't always play out like investors expect. And a bit of common sense tells us that's likely to be the case today, too.
Brinksmanship creates a lot of uncertainty. And it does punish the markets.
So, no matter how you feel about today's politics. I recommend you keep an eye on the markets. And don't run for the hills just yet.
There are lot of opportunities in the making.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
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Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.07%
6
18
6
S&P 500
+0.28%
59
309
132
Nasdaq
+0.81%
8
68
24
Small Caps
+0.01%
194
1212
492
Bonds
+0.51%
Consumer Discretionary
+1.04%
2
36
12
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Consumer Staples
+3.95%
Utilities
+2.77%
Real Estate
+1.36%
Energy
+0.83%
Materials
-0.25%
Health Care
-1.33%
Financial
-1.35%
Industrials
-1.99%
Consumer Discretionary
-3.11%
Communication
-3.43%
Information Technology
-4.74%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Bank Services
1
86
3
Over the past 6 months, the Bank subsector (KBE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +3.90%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #13 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 8 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
TFIN
Triumph Financial, I
CMA
Comerica Incorporate
GBCI
Glacier Bancorp, Inc
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
VST
+4.09%
RL
+3.71%
TSLA
+3.59%
TPR
+3.52%
GEV
+3.39%
Losers
JNJ
-7.59%
LUV
-5.93%
WBD
-4.85%
MRNA
-4.2%
IPG
-3.83%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
NCNO nCino, Inc.
Q4
$0.12
Missed by $-0.07
* * * *
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