Indexes Finished Mixed Yesterday After FOMC Minutes, Stocks Are Closed Today In Honor Of Jimmy Carter

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Indexes Finished Mixed Yesterday After FOMC Minutes, Stocks Are Closed Today In Honor Of Jimmy Carter

	Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
	Indexes Finished Mixed Yesterday After FOMC Minutes, Stocks Are Closed Today In Honor Of Jimmy Carter Stocks closed mixed yesterday, but off their lows. The Dow, S&P 500 and mid-cap S&P 400 were modestly higher, while the Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 were modestly lower. The markets were back and forth all day yesterday, flitting between the plus and minus columns. But the worst levels came before the FOMC minutes. And the best levels came after. Ironically, the minutes showed that Fed officials expressed concern about inflation and the incoming administration's policies, specifically on tariffs. The report said: "almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased," and that there was a "need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over the coming quarters." The report also read that "...with its policy stance still meaningfully restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity and inflation...." Stocks improved after the report. And yields, which rose prior to the report (and have been rising ever since the last meeting) fell after the report. While the minutes emphasized a "gradual approach," the prospect of two rate cuts this year remain intact. Given there was nothing new in the minutes, other than seeing the words on paper, there was likely a bit of relief that there were no surprises in the minutes. In other news, MBA Mortgage Applications showed the composite index down -3.7% w/w with purchases off -6.6% and refi's up 1.5%. Weekly Jobless Claims were down -10,000 to 201,000 vs. views for 216,000. And the ADP Employment Report is estimating 122,000 private payroll jobs were created in December vs. their consensus for 134,000. But the jobs report everybody is waiting for is Friday's (1/10) Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). At the moment, the consensus is looking for 157,000 new jobs being created in December (130K in the private sector and 27K in the public). The unemployment rate is expected to stay the same at 4.2%. And average hourly earnings are expected to come in at 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.4% pace, while the y/y rate comes in at 4.0%, in line with last month. In the meantime, today we'll get the Challenger Job-Cut Report. But the stock market will be closed with January 9th being observed as a national day of mourning in honor of former President Jimmy Carter's passing away. Bond markets remain open, but will close early. With just one more trading day left in the week, all of the major indexes are currently down for the week. Although, they are all up YTD. See you on Friday. Best, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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