What a day for one of the world's biggest companies... Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) reported its first-quarter numbers after the market closed last Wednesday. Its earnings handily beat Wall Street's consensus estimates.
The 'Very Bearish' Side of This AI Chipmaker
By Marc Gerstein, director of research, Chaikin Analytics
What a day for one of the world's biggest companies...
Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) reported its first-quarter numbers after the market closed last Wednesday. Its earnings handily beat Wall Street's consensus estimates.
And the stock surged 24% the next day.
Now, a 24% gain in a single day is incredible for any company. But it's even more impressive when you consider Nvidia's massive size...
You see, Nvidia was already among the top 10 largest companies in the world. Then, its market cap jumped $184 billion in one day.
In other words... Nvidia gained the equivalent of 18 stocks on the edge of large-cap status.
It's now approaching a $1 trillion market cap. The only other companies to hit that level are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Saudi Aramco, Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN).
Nvidia is on an incredible run higher. And that leaves us with a simple question...
How do you engage with this type of stock?
We'll turn to the Power Gauge to help us figure out the answer...
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Regular readers know the Power Gauge is our system for finding the best opportunities in the market. It's built on Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin's five-plus decades of experience.
The Power Gauge looks at 20 different factors in four categories – Financials, Earnings, Technicals, and Experts. And using all that data, it produces an overall rating for more than 5,000 stocks.
Our system turned "bullish" on Nvidia in late February. And it still holds that ranking today.
Better still, the Power Gauge boasts "very bullish" grades for the stock's relative strength and our Chaikin Money Flow indicator. We put a lot of weight into those two factors...
If a stock is outperforming the market (relative strength), there's a good chance the momentum will continue. And the Chaikin Money Flow indicator gives us a glimpse into what the "smart money" is doing. It's a great sign when these powerful investors are buying.
Over the years, Nvidia became known for its terrific graphics cards. And it's getting a bit of a resurgence with so much hype about and focus on artificial intelligence ("AI") these days.
And unlike many growth-minded companies riding disruptive trends, Nvidia is solidly profitable. The Power Gauge is "very bullish" on its return on equity.
But it's not all sunshine and butterflies...
The Power Gauge also includes four valuation-related factors (price to book value, price to sales, free cash flow, and projected price to earnings). And today, the system ranks Nvidia as "very bearish" in all four factors.
Put simply, Nvidia's stock is far too expensive right now. Its price-to-earnings ratio is roughly 49 (based on next year's estimated results). And its price-to-sales ratio is about 36.
For perspective, the chipmaking industry's median price-to-earnings ratio is 16.5. And the industry's median price-to-sales ratio is 4.2.
In the end, the takeaway is clear...
Nvidia is flying magnificently right now. It's up roughly 240% since last October.
And with the AI hype in full force, we can't deny the stock's current momentum.
But some of our cockpit gauges are already flashing red. The valuation-related factors are all "very bearish" right now.
Thankfully, the Power Gauge gives us the nuance we need.
Good investing,
Marc Gerstein
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.94%
6
21
3
S&P 500
+1.30%
127
267
105
Nasdaq
+2.56%
49
38
13
Small Caps
+1.10%
459
910
511
Bonds
+0.81%
Information Technology
+2.84%
44
20
0
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks remain somewhat more Bearish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
+4.64%
Communication
+1.22%
Discretionary
+0.28%
Energy
-1.09%
Real Estate
-1.41%
Industrials
-1.44%
Financial
-1.56%
Utilities
-2.30%
Health Care
-2.88%
Materials
-3.04%
Staples
-3.28%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Homebuilders Services
21
13
0
Over the past 6 months, the Homebuilders subsector (XHB) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +9.47%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #2 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.
Top Stocks
MHO
M/I Homes, Inc.
TMHC
Taylor Morrison Home
BLDR
Builders FirstSource
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
AVGO
+11.52%
ANET
+9.06%
DLR
+7.23%
MPWR
+6.68%
TER
+6.62%
Losers
ULTA
-13.37%
KR
-3.25%
ES
-3.06%
RE
-2.75%
MDT
-2.49%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
HPE, HPQ, UHAL
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
No significant Earnings Surprises in the Russell 3000.
* * * *
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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
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