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WARNING: The Last Time This Indicator Signaled Was in 2008.

Money & Crisis

August 17, 2021

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WARNING: The Last Time This Indicator Signaled Was in 2008.

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

As I keep warning, we are seeing an inflationary spike that will eventually lead to a spectacular crash in stocks.

The only reason this isn’t obvious to everyone, is because the official inflation metric, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), uses multiple gimmicks to downplay the true rate of inflation. I outlined one of them last week, noting that according to the CPI, shelter inflation is up just 2.8% in the last 12 months.

Bear in mind, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is claiming this at a time when apartment rents are up 7%-8.7% and housing prices are up 23%. So, unless you live in a cave, your cost of living in terms of shelter is a whole lot more than 2.8%.

In fact, if you used real world data for the CPI’s shelter measure instead of the ridiculous gimmicks employed by the BLS, CPI would be nearly 8%.

If you find this hard to believe, consider that the CPI’s less known, less watched, but more accurate cousin, the Producer Price Index (PPI) just clocked in at 7.8% year over year for the month of July.

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What is PPI?

According to the BLS’s own website, "the PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and some services."

Put another way, the PPI measures what real companies, selling real products and services, are having to charge to make ends meet. Compare this to CPI which is a highly politicized data point featuring countless gimmicks and sometimes total fiction in order to present inflation as transitory.

So… which are we to believe, the metric that is generated by actual producers who must adjust their costs or lose profits (PPI), or the metric that is manufactured by government bean-counters in Washington, and which is HIGHLY politicized due to its relationship to Fed monetary policy (CPI)?

The answer is obvious.

By the way, the gap between PPI and CPI is the widest in 11 years (since the 2008 crisis). The last time the gap was this wide was in July 2008, right before the Great Financial Crisis hit.

FRED Chart

H/T to Bill King at King Trading.

As I keep warning, the clock is ticking on the stock market bubble. It’s just a matter of time before this thing bursts.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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