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The Coming Deflationary Crisis No One is Talking About

Money & Crisis

August 18, 2021

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The Coming Deflationary Crisis No One is Talking About

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

Over the last two days, I’ve been outlining how inflation is signaling to us that a crisis is just around the corner.

By quick way of review:

  1. On Monday we detailed how stocks initially love inflation, but that love quickly turns to hate. During the last major bout of inflation in the 1970s, stocks eventually crashed some 50%.
  1. On Tuesday we outlined how real inflation is much higher than the highly gimmicked official Consumer Price Index (CPI) claims. Using real world data, we illustrated that real inflation is almost 8%. The last time real inflation diverged this sharply from CPI was in July 2008, just before the Great Financial Crisis.

Today I want to outline how inflation typically presages massive deflationary crisis. In fact, this has been the case for two of the last three crises: the Tech Crash and the Housing Bust.

Indeed, from a 20,000-foot perspective, the prior two bubbles (the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Real Estate Bubble of the ‘00s) both followed a clear pattern.

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That pattern was:

  1. An asset class becomes disconnected from reality, soaring to levels far exceeding its historical relationship to underlying fundamentals.
  1. The Fed ignores the bubble, claiming it’s impossible to predict bubbles.
  1. The Fed begins to tighten monetary conditions by raising interest rates.
  1. The bubble bursts, the asset class collapses back to more appropriate levels, and the Fed is forced to employ extraordinary monetary policies to stop the financial system from entering debt deflation.

We typically see an inflationary burst between #1 and #2… which prompts the Fed to act in #3.

This was the case prior to the 20% drop in 1992, the Tech Bubble bursting in 2000, the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, the 20% market drop in 2011, and…now.

FRED Chart

In every single instance, inflation spiked, the system couldn’t handle it, and stocks rolled over and dropped 20%-50%.

This time will be no different. It’s now just a matter of time.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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