Kamis, 22 Juli 2021

What's Behind the Recent Rally?

Money & Crisis

July 22, 2021

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What’s Behind the Recent Rally?

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

Stocks have ripped higher over the last 48 hours.

There’s no shortage of reasons for this.

  1. “Someone” manipulated stocks higher on Tuesday morning.
  2. “Someone” leaked to Bloomberg that the Biden administration intends to keep Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.
  3. Short covering.

Regarding the first point, Tuesday morning saw clear and obvious market manipulation (see the rectangle on the intra-day chart below). No real, organic buyer drives markets 39 points higher on no news. Real buying from institutions is subtle and carefully placed so as NOT to move the market.

The big “tell” here is that as soon as the manipulation ended, stocks traded sideways for the remainder of the session. This indicates there was no real buying behind the move, it was simply “someone” wanted stocks higher, forced them higher, and then stopped.

Chart: Stocks Tuesday morning

On the second point, the news that Jerome Powell will likely remain Fed Chair after his first term ends in 2022 is highly bullish. That’s because the only reason the Biden administration would keep Powell on would be because Powell agrees with the Biden administration’s policy goals.

Those goals are to print enormous amounts of money (for things like Biden’s $3-plus trillion infrastructure scheme). This implicitly means the Fed will NOT be tapering QE, NOT raising rates, NOT tightening monetary policy until at least after the 2022 midterms.

And finally, we get to number 3: short covering.

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Goldman Sachs noted that there was NO institutional buying of stocks on Monday, yet the 50 stocks with the highest short interest surged 5% over the past two sessions. Compare that to the broader stock market which was barely up 2% and you quickly see that most of the “buying power” behind this market move has been shorts covering (once you short a stock, you have to “buy” it to close the trade).

So, the real question is… Is this recent move higher over, or is it igniting a new bull run?

With the stock market stretched farther above its 20-month moving average than at any point in the last 20 years (see the chart below), the odds do not suggest a massive bull run is about to begin.

Chart: Stocks overextended

Every time stocks have been this far above their 20-MMA they’ve corrected to test this line. This would mean the S&P 500 falling to test 3,500 or so. At the very least a drop to 4,100 would take out some of the frothiness in the markets.

Chart: closer look

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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