Jumat, 23 Juli 2021

Whatever Happened to Gold?

Money & Crisis

July 23, 2021

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Whatever Happened to Gold?

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

I’m sure by now many of you are wondering what is happening with gold.

After all, it is clear that inflation has appeared in the financial system. That’s pretty disturbing. What’s even more disturbing is that the Fed is intentionally turning a “blind eye” to it, which means it’s only going to get worse.

And yet gold, which is widely considered to be an inflation hedge, hasn’t been doing much of anything.

Chart: Gold

What’s going on here?

The True Nature of Gold

It’s true that gold is an inflation hedge. However, for large financial institutions, gold is NOT “money,” it’s just another risk asset that trades based on what Treasuries are doing.

Remember, modern financial theory dictates that lending money to the U.S. government via U.S. sovereign debt (called “Treasuries”) is the only truly “risk free” investment in the world.

In this light, the yields on Treasuries are considered the “risk free” rate of return for the financial system: Every other asset class, including gold, trades based on what these yields are doing.

Now, there are two different types of Treasuries:

  1. Regular Treasuries, which trade based on economic growth, inflation and other items.
  2. Treasuries that are specifically designed to trade based on inflation, called Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or TIPS.

As I mentioned before, the yield on normal Treasuries is considered the “risk-free” rate of return for the financial system. However, this doesn’t represent the REAL rate of return, or true cost of money.

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After all, we live in a fiat (paper money) regime. As such, nominal yields (meaning the “printed” yield on a bond) doesn’t equate to what you will actually earn from owning it. To get that, you need to deduct inflation from your expected yield.

To do this, you need to subtract what you’d earn from owning TIPS from what you would earn from owning normal Treasuries. Doing this provides you with what’s referred to as “real rates” or the REAL (inflation-based) return you get from owning an asset.

THIS is what Gold tracks as the below chart reveals.

Chart: Gold v real rates

As you can see in the above chart, historically gold closely tracks real rates. So what are real rates doing now?

They’re soaring. Indeed, the divergence between the two items is quite large, which means either real rates need to come down, or gold needs to catch up.

Chart: gold and real rates diverge

I’ll detail which I think is going to happen on Monday.

Until then… have a great weekend!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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