Minggu, 18 Juli 2021

The Signals SPCE Gave Before This Week’s “Sell the Rumor” Sell-Off

JBP Momentum Stocks

Hey Guys and Gals,

It's a market phenomenon that dates back to the early days of trading and to this day remains one of the more difficult concepts for many new traders to grasp.

"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old mantra that has left countless traders holding the bag. The emotion often leads novice traders to ignore the mean reversion forces that usually cause a stock to fall after anticipated news has been announced.

If you think about it, when a company's stock price rallies on expectations of a corporate development that promises to strengthen the company's financials well into the future, it can seem counterintuitive to sell the stock when the news becomes official.

As traders, we must respect the fact that stock prices move cyclically, overshooting some central mean to the upside and downside as a long-term price trend develops, in a manner that resembles something similar to what's shown on Figure 1 below.

Figure 1

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Whether it be the anticipation of strong sector-wide earnings, a beneficial change in government policy, a stock-friendly decline in interest rates, or the rumor of some new revenue-generating business line, there's no shortage of fundamental narratives that cause these shorter-term overshoot cycles to develop.

The key thing to be able to recognize as a trader is when these cycles have run their course.

I'm about to show you how to identify when a rumor-driven price rally may have run its course to the point where, at a minimum, placement of high-probability time decay (theta decay) trades should be considered.

Click here to continue reading...

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Jason Bond

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